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F&O Manual: Analysts see some pullback in Nifty ahead of expiry tomorrow

Analysts expect the Nifty to face an immediate resistance at 17,200 whereas support is seen around 16,900.

March 28, 2023 / 17:25 IST
The market ended with minor losses on March 28 amid high volatility as traders rolled over positions to the April series ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry, due tomorrow. After a flat start, the market failed to hold on to its modest gains and slipped into losses as selling intensified across sectors. The Nifty ended the listless session 34 points or 0.20 percent lower at 16,951.70.  (The blue bars show volume and the golden open interest)
1/5
The market ended with minor losses on March 28 amid high volatility as traders rolled over positions to the April series ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry, due tomorrow. After a flat start, the market failed to hold on to its modest gains and slipped into losses as selling intensified across sectors. The Nifty ended the listless session 34 points or 0.20 percent lower at 16,951.70.  (The blue bars show volume and the golden open interest)
Among options, maximum call writing was seen at 17,000 which resonated with the Nifty's struggle to sustain above that level in the cash market. Call writers were also active at higher strikes of 17,100 and 17,200. On the put options front, writers moved lower to 16,900. Viraj Vyas, Technical and Derivatives Analyst at Ashika Stock Broking expects to see some pullback in the market towards 17,200 and even 17,400 ahead of the F&O expiry tomorrow. "Foreign institutional investors have significantly squared off their short bets in recent sessions which is a sign that they may attempt to trigger in a short covering rally in the market ahead of the derivatives expiry," Vyas said. He also suggested investors place a contra bet by initiating a long straddle strategy of buying put as well as call options of 17,000 to reap the risk reward. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.) 
2/5
Among options, maximum call writing was seen at 17,000 which resonated with the Nifty's struggle to sustain above that level in the cash market. Call writers were also active at higher strikes of 17,100 and 17,200. On the put options front, writers moved lower to 16,900. Viraj Vyas, Technical and Derivatives Analyst at Ashika Stock Broking expects to see some pullback in the market towards 17,200 and even 17,400 ahead of the F&O expiry tomorrow. "Foreign institutional investors have significantly squared off their short bets in recent sessions which is a sign that they may attempt to trigger in a short covering rally in the market ahead of the derivatives expiry," Vyas said. He also suggested investors to place a contra bet by initiating a long straddle strategy of buying put as well as call options of 17,000 to reap the risk reward. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
As for Bank Nifty, 40,000, a strong resistance for the sectoral index continued to witness heavy call writing. This suggests that the sectoral index is unlikely to settle above 40,000 at the end of the March F&O expiry tomorrow. Among put options, maximum put writing was seen at 39,400 followed by other lower strikes. Analysts believe the sectoral index will likely remain rangebound between 39,000-40,000 and only a decisive surpassing of either levels can trigger a strong directional momentum for the index. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
3/5
As for Bank Nifty, 40,000, a strong resistance for the sectoral index continued to witness heavy call writing. This suggests that the sectoral index is unlikely to settle above 40,000 at the end of the March F&O expiry tomorrow. Among put options, maximum put writing was seen at 39,400 followed by other lower strikes. Analysts believe the sectoral index will likely remain rangebound between 39,000-40,000 and only a decisive surpassing of either levels can trigger a strong directional momentum for the index. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
Adani-Group stocks like Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, ACC and Ambuja Cements witnessed heavy addition of short positions today. The open interest in Adani Enterprises surged around 8 percent, the highest in a quarter, while the stock price hit a one-week low in the cash market. Volumes in the counter also hit a one-week high. A short build-up is a bearish sign that takes place when the price of a stock falls, along with high open interest and volume. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
4/5
Adani-Group stocks like Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, ACC, and Ambuja Cements witnessed heavy addition of short positions today. The open interest in Adani Enterprises surged around 8 percent, the highest in a quarter, while the stock price hit a one-week low in the cash market. Volumes in the counter also hit a one-week high. A short build-up is a bearish sign that takes place when the price of a stock falls, along with high open interest and volume. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
Torrent Power saw long buildup as a rise in open interest in the counter was accompanied by a the stock price climbing over the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages in the cash market. Another stock, Aditya Birla Capital also witnessed addition of long positions as open interest rose nearly 6 percent along with a rise in prices above the 50-day simple moving average. A long build-up is a bullish sign characterised by an increase in open interest and volume with the rise in share price. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.) Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
5/5
Torrent Power saw long buildup as a rise in open interest in the counter was accompanied by the stock price climbing over the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages in the cash market. Aditya Birla Capital also witnessed addition of long positions as open interest rose nearly 6 percent along with a rise in prices above the 50-day simple moving average. A long build-up is a bullish sign characterised by an increase in open interest and volume with the rise in share price. (The bars reflect changes in OI during the day. The red show call option OI and the green put option OI.)
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Vaibhavi Ranjan
first published: Mar 28, 2023 05:20 pm

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