Will the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh ignite a wider conflict in West Asia?

Ismail Haniyeh (left) and Fuad Shukr were killed deep inside enemy territory.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh could mark a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This comes on the heels of another assassination when Israeli forces claimed to have killed Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr on Tuesday.

The assassination news should not come as a surprise. While Israel has claimed responsibility only for Shukr's death, such assassinations are a time-tested Israeli policy. Over the decades, Israel has targeted high-profile Hamas leaders, including the blind Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder and spiritual head of Hamas. That assassination occurred exactly 20 years ago in the Gaza Strip.

What is different this time is that Shukr and Haniyeh were killed deep inside enemy territory—not in the small, forsaken enclave of Gaza, but in densely populated, fortified city centers in Beirut and Tehran, respectively.

What Is the Significance of These Attacks?

These assassinations are significant on several levels and extend beyond Hamas and the Palestinian conflict.

At the immediate level, they serve as a warning to Hamas that no place is too far or too safe for Israel to strike. Haniyeh had been ensconced in Tehran, in the heart of Hamas's patron, Iran. He had just attended the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian and then met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

There are numerous intertwined threads that need to be unraveled here, starting with the timing. Just a few days ago, China hosted representatives from different Palestinian factions, including Hamas, to forge national unity. National unity remains elusive for Palestinians, often falling apart and allowing for the classic divide-and-rule policy in the West Bank and Gaza—two enclaves separated by Israeli territory. In Beijing, the factions had promised to work under the umbrella of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, which would act as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.

Simultaneously, a ceasefire between Hamas and Israeli representatives was being negotiated in Rome, involving Israel, the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, to end the brutal conflict that has been raging for ten months. This conflict began with multipronged Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2024, which killed 1,200 Israelis. More than 200 civilians, including toddlers, were also taken hostage by Hamas. It is believed that 111 of the hostages remain in Gaza, including the bodies of 39 confirmed dead by the IDF.

According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, more than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed so far in the conflict. The Israeli Defense Forces have also suffered significant losses, with official data citing 339 dead.

How does it Impact Negotiations?

While all of this was underway, another set of negotiations was reportedly happening between Israel, the UAE, and the US regarding the post-conflict administration of the Gaza Strip.

The assassination of Haniyeh could serve multiple purposes. It might scuttle ceasefire and hostage negotiations. Not only Hamas but also many Israelis have accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prolonging ceasefire talks, primarily for his own political survival.

On the other hand, the assassination is likely to weaken Hamas significantly, which has already lost many of its members and resources in this war. It is possible that Israel has the tacit support of both the Palestinian Authority, whose greatest rival is Hamas, and Arab states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with which violent organizations like Hamas have long lost favour. An end to Hamas would serve all these interests.

At a broader level, the assassinations—whether of Shukr or Haniyeh—send a clear message to Iran and its new president. Both Shukr and Haniyeh are Iran's protégés and foot soldiers in the shadow war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state. Shukr's assassination followed an attack by Hezbollah on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children. Since the beginning of the Gaza conflict, there has been a steady exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah along Israel's northern borders.

Israel Intensifies Its Strike Operations

Israel has also been bombing targets in Syria, including a significant attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus. This led Iran to take the unprecedented step of launching direct, albeit limited, attacks on Israel, and vice versa. Both countries have demonstrated their ability to strike each other but also their reluctance to escalate further.

Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have regularly attacked American bases in the region, while pro-Iran Houthis in Yemen have targeted ships destined for Israel in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be leading the funeral prayers for Haniyeh,  and according to a New York Times report ordered direct strike on Israel in retaliation.  If this happens it will be a major escalation.

However, if past patterns are any indicator, we might witness only angry rhetoric from Tehran and Beirut for now, along with more concerted efforts by Iran's proxies across the region, and more frantic behind-the-scenes diplomacy by the US, Arab powers, Russia, and China.