Why Himanta Biswa Sarma, and not Sarbananda Sonowal, is Assam Chief Minister

File image: Himanta Biswa Sarma (right) with Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Image courtesy: Twitter/@drlaxmanbjp)

There were many exceptional incidents during and after the assembly polls in Assam, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command’s inability for almost a week to decide on the Chief Minister. The delay has been attributed to the post-poll violence in West Bengal, which prevented the party leaders from devoting attention to Assam. However, in all probability, the decision had been taken months ahead of the polls, and was probably also conveyed to Himanta Biswa Sarma in categorical terms.

Sarma’s appointment as Chief Minister does not come as a big surprise in Assam. He was already known as the ‘Super CM’ since the time of the previous Congress regimes in the state. Some analysts were of the view that Sarma would not get the top job in the state as he was a Brahmin from lower (western) Assam and his acceptability would be low among many indigenous communities. It is true that no Brahmin had ever been Assam’s Chief Minister. However, in reality, all these factors are no longer relevant in Assam, which is in desperate need of a committed government willing to resolve burning issues.

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The BJP high command saw greater benefits in replacing Sarbananda Sonowal with Sarma who had abundantly demonstrated his organising and managerial skills in the last five years. Sarma is credited with a major role in the BJP’s consecutive wins in the assembly elections in 2016 and 2021.

He drew flak for playing the communal card, but it brought rich dividends to the BJP. His expertise in plotting coups and framing alliances were established beyond doubt when the BJP gained a foothold in Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland. As the health minister, Sarma earned accolades for his apt handling of the pandemic in Assam during the first wave, although it remains to be seen if the same results can be achieved with the current second wave.

Sonowal was a prized catch for the BJP at a time when there was no prominent leader in the party who could be projected as Chief Minister. He was already called a ‘jatio nayak’ after his petition in the Supreme Court against the IMDT Act resulted in the repeal of the controversial law considered to be biased in favour of the illegal immigrants. He was declared the chief ministerial candidate by the party three months ahead of the assembly polls in 2016. In the complex ethnic equations in Assam, Sonowal was acceptable to all communities, which was also a reason for the party’s laudable performance in the eastern districts considered the Assamese heartland. Certainly, anti-incumbency against the Congress regime was a key reason that helped the BJP capture power in Assam in 2016.

However, being a successful Chief Minister is a ball game very different from a triumphant Member of Parliament or leader of a student organisation. This was something that Sonowal failed to fulfil and live up to the expectations of not only the party leadership but large sections of the populace in Assam.

Sonowal was indecisive, lacked confidence and failed to evolve over the last five years. He surrounded himself with people some of whom faced serious and repeated allegations of corruption and involvement with the illegal trade syndicates from the media and opposition parties. No Chief Minister in the past avoided journalists to such an extent as Sonowal. Although the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was not a factor in the assembly polls, Sonowal was the focus during the protests that erupted in the state for not being able to convince the central leadership to exempt Assam from the new law.

The BJP leadership knows that the road ahead for the BJP could be tricky in Assam. It will have to deliver results which could be possible only with a proactive Chief Minister. Playing the Badruddin Ajmal card to underscore the danger from illegal Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants may not work wonders every time.

The National Register of Citizens (NRC) is hanging fire and no effort has been made to provide constitutional safeguards to the indigenous communities. Every year the Brahmaputra River gobbles large chunks of land; floods continue to devastate the state at regular intervals and there is no perceptible change either in terms of employment generation or reduction in the levels of corruption. Above all, the election results have revealed that the BJP cannot form the government in Assam without the support of allies. This means that the party has the additional task of ensuring the sustenance of the allies’ vote banks.