Vidarbha, the gateway to political power in Maharashtra

Insights from conversations across Vidarbha suggest that traditional exit polls and media narratives may not be able to capture the highly nuanced reality of its political landscape.

Vidarbha, the eastern region of Maharashtra comprising 11 districts, is a key battleground in the state’s political landscape. With a population of 2.5 crore, nearly one-fifth of Maharashtra’s total, Vidarbha often determines the political tide. Despite its importance, the region has long felt neglected compared to western Maharashtra.

Predominantly agrarian, Vidarbha’s economy relies on crops like cotton, soybeans, and rice. However, issues such as poor irrigation, high input costs, and inefficient agricultural policies have kept the region in crisis. Farmers here have endured decades of distress, marked by suicides during the 1990s and 2000s.

Political dynamics  

Vidarbha’s political landscape is as complex as its challenges. Historically, it has produced four of Maharashtra’s chief ministers. The BJP, which once enjoyed strong support here, won 44 of 62 assembly seats in 2014 but saw its tally drop to 29 in 2019. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections highlighted this decline, with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance winning seven out of 10 seats in the region.

Significant voter groups include OBCs, Dalits, tribals, and Muslims. Dalits, especially neo-Buddhists, have shown resistance to the BJP, while the party has sought to consolidate its OBC base through alliances like the MADHAV (Mali-Dhangar-Vanjara) coalition. The Muslim community, concentrated in districts such as Amravati and Yavatmal, often aligns with the MVA. Meanwhile, tribal communities in eastern Vidarbha, where Maoist influences persist, add another layer of complexity.

Local strongmen dominate Vidarbha’s politics, wielding significant influence over their constituencies. These leaders often capitalise on state and central schemes to build personal political fortresses. This dynamic reflects a shift toward transactional politics, where practical gains outweigh ideological commitments.

Nagpur: The modernising capital  

Nagpur, Vidarbha’s largest city and regional capital, stands out for its rapid modernisation. Known for its oranges, Nagpur has evolved into a well-organised urban centre with clean streets, a metro system, and public amenities. However, the city’s development contrasts starkly with the rural hinterlands, such as Ramtek, which sends most of its youth as construction labourers to Nagpur.

Infrastructure advancements, including the Samruddhi Expressway and MIHAN logistics hub, promise better connectivity and development opportunities.

Gondia- Most neglected district

The people of the eastern-most district are among the poorest, living a subsistence life reliant on MGNREGA work and government-provided free rations. Large-scale migration to other parts of India, particularly the South, for work in construction and agriculture, is common. Beedi making with the tendu leaves is a prevalent cottage industry here. But Gondia City has seen a saturation of government schemes from tap water, to housing and rural roads.

The Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh - Chhattisgarh (MMC) tri-junction still is a strong focal point for the Maosits. Ten thousand CRPF personnel are set to be involved in election activities.

Bhandara and Chandrapur- Strongman politics

The "local strongman" is a feature that repeats itself in various parts of Maharashtra. A local leader lavishes attention on an urban area in his constituency, takes credit for all central and state government schemes and makes the constituency his bastion. With this as a political heft, he gives himself the opportunity to switch parties and engage in realpolitik. Narendra Bhondekar of Pauni and Vijay Wadettiwar of Brahmapuri exemplify this phenomenon.

Politics in Maharashtra has seen a whirlwind of events, including various agitations, which has left people feeling fatigued and perhaps apathetic. The Maratha agitation does not seem to have a significant impact here.

Gadchiroli: Maoist Shadows and Development Challenges  

It is among India’s 43 left-wing extremism (LWE) affected districts. Home Minister Amit Shah has vowed to eradicate LWE by 2026. Gadchiroli struggles with poor infrastructure, including dilapidated roads, and limited economic opportunities.

Efforts by leaders like Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis have focused on addressing irrigation and industrialisation issues. Projects like the revival of canal networks, solar-powered agricultural grids, and industrial investments like the Rs 10,000 crore Surajgad Ispat steel plant aim to improve the region’s prospects.

Yavatmal - Agri woes abound

There is palpable agri-distress here, with relief coming from only from schemes like the Krishi Samman Nidhi and Ladki Bahin Yojna. However, the absence of robust irrigation and fluctuating MSPs make farming a precarious endeavour. They are able to grow one crop.

This situation contrasts sharply with western Maharashtra, which has a well-developed irrigation system, cooperative banks, and facilities that provide essential inputs to farmers. The NCP has established a strong agriculture-based infrastructure there, which also aids its political influence.

Hingoli - MSP is the name of the game

The current MSP for soyabeans is around Rs.4300 per quintal. But farmers get only Rs.3800 in the market. The recent soyabean "MSP war" between the BJP and Congress, with the former promising Rs.6000 per quintal and the latter Rs.7000 per quintal will have bearing on the voting.

Fadnavis has highlighted the Bhavantar scheme under which the government pays the price differential between the market price and minimum support price, up to Rs. 5000 per hectare. The MSP of cotton at around Rs.7000 per quintal is also felt as inadequate.

Washim and Akola - Farm issues meets communalism

Agricultural credit problems persist here; farmers take loans to buy inputs and pay for labour. They struggle to access essential supplies like pesticides, urea, and seeds.  PM Modi inaugurated a Rs. 700 crore Vanjara museum to honour the politically significant community.

Akola is considered as a transit-hub of illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya Muslims that further pan out to Mumbai, Pune and Bengaluru. It was a significant centre for the banned Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), which played a major role in the 1992 riots. The RSS, leveraging its strong presence and numerous educational institutions in these areas, has been instrumental in shaping a counterbalance.

Amravati: A microcosm of Vidarbha  

Nothing explains the complexity of Vidarbha like Amravati. Every confusing element of Maharashtra politics—strongman dominance, fragmented community groups, agricultural issues, intra-alliance rivalries, and the presence of rebels—is concentrated here in Amravati.

Every main candidate fighting for the Amravati assembly constituency in the upcoming assembly elections has all switched parties at some point. Rebels abound in every assembly constituency.

Vidarbha’s Pragmatic Voters

Vidarbha is a land of contrasts, where urban hubs like Nagpur thrive while rural areas grapple with industrial stagnation, agrarian woes, and unemployment. The region often acts as a swing factor in state and national elections. Vidarbha’s voters are increasingly pragmatic, prioritising immediate needs over ideological alignments.

The Mahayuti alliance is banking on the cash transfer programs, especially the Ladki Bahin scheme to see it past the post. The RSS, buoyed by the success in Haryana, is mobilizing voters through hundreds of small meetings to reiterate PM Modi's "Ek hai to safe hai" mantra.

Insights from conversations across Vidarbha suggest that traditional exit polls and media narratives may not be able to capture the highly nuanced reality of its political landscape. Candidate selection, managing rebels, local allegiances, and last-minute decisions hold sway. In media-speak, there will be 288 elections on the 20th of November.