Political rumblings across the Vindhyas — Does BJP smell a chance?

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, in New Delhi, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2020. (PTI Photo)(PTI2_12_2020_000224B)

For the past few days, political rumblings can be heard across states in South India with parties heading the government in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana making bold statements, while in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the party in opposition is at war with itself.

Consolidation

An internal power struggle between two factions in the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) culminated in former chief minister E Palaniswami, known as EPS to his supporters, consolidating his grip over the party. He ended the dual leadership model to share responsibility with O Panneerselvam (OPS), the three-time stand-in Chief Minister. This working arrangement was arrived at in the party that faced an uncertain future after the death of J Jayalalithaa in 2016. Half a decade later, EPS took the fight to the finish, and terminated OPS’ run in the party.

The July 11 manoeuvre ostensibly ended the dual leadership pattern, yet it would require a soothsayer to declare the innings closed for there is no knowing what the OPS camp would do. Belonging to an influential Thevar community and once propped up by Sasikala, aide of Jayalalithaa, OPS can create hurdles. For now, the AIADMK cadre has rallied behind EPS, who hails from Gounder community which is important in Tamil Nadu’s electoral math.

EPS, as Chief Minister in the post-Jayalalithaa phase, established a fine working relationship with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government at the Centre, and is attempting to resurrect the AIADMK after a poor show in the last assembly elections. The possibility of tacit support to the AIADMK should allow the BJP to expand its political base in the state.

The two regional parties showcase limitations of organisations that become monolithic and relying on a charismatic leader. In the absence of a clear line of succession, these outfits suffer from deep divisions within.

One Leader Model

On July 7, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y Jagan Mohan Reddy was unanimously declared the life president of the decade-old Yuvajana Ryuthu Sramika Congress Party (YSRCP), the party he founded with support from his mother YS Vijayalakshmi, and sister Sharmila Reddy. Having relegated Sharmila Reddy to the side-lines a few years ago, Jagan Mohan Reddy took control of the party as his mother announced voluntarily to step aside from her patronship. At the party plenary, the young Chief Minister rebranded himself from Jagan Anna (elder brother) adding a Jagan Tammudu (younger brother) and Jagan Koduku (son) encompassing all roles of a male child, and in the process subtly casting away YSR’s legacy to build his own image.

While the YSRCP maintains a distance from the BJP, Jagan Mohan Reddy is preparing ground to check the national party’s rise in Andhra Pradesh and prevent a situation like neighbouring Telangana, where the BJP is on an aggressive path to wrest power from the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS).

Jagan Mohan Reddy, who turns 50 this December, has age on his side. Neither the party nor Jagan Mohan Reddy are in a mood to entertain any thoughts on a second line of leadership.

Telangana Tales

K Chandrasekhar Rao, Telangana Chief Minister and TRS founder, settled the leadership issue early on by declaring his son, KT Rama Rao, his successor. After two back-to-back victories in the assembly, the TRS is now under a twin attack — anti-incumbency, and a stiff challenge from the BJP. KCR, on his part, is portraying himself as a new harbinger of hope offering opposition to the BJP at the national level.

Over the past few months, KCR declared his intent to offer a national non-BJP, non-Congress alternative at the Centre. On July 10, at a prolonged press conference, KCR took on the Narendra Modi government, a move aimed to create an impression that he and his TRS have a larger role in national politics. Having farmed out a role for his son in Telangana, the shrewd politician is pitting himself as a direct challenger to Modi.

The assembly elections are due in December 2023, and its results should show which way the wind is blowing for KCR, and the TRS. The decision of BJP to hold its party meeting at Hyderabad in the first week of July was to send a message that the party is pitching a tent in this battle.

K V Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist. 

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.