Modi in US engages with Quad leaders amid rising East-West tensions

PM Modi addresses the Indian diaspora in New York, USA. (Source: PTI)

Prime Minister Modi held discussions with President Biden, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and Prime Minster Anthony Albanese of Australia during visit to US for the Quad summit in Delaware on September 21. He will also address the ‘Summit of the Future’ hosted by the UN on September 23. The visit is taking place at a time of deepening rift between the East and the West. The US power faces increasing challenge from a rising China. The immediate threat is to China’s neighbours in the arc stretching from Japan, ASEAN countries to India. This indeed is the reason for continued relevance of Quad.

PM’s visit to the US is taking place in the middle of US Presidential race. Will the outcome of the election affect US policy on Quad? There is a bipartisan consensus on Quad in the US. However, there are difference between the two parties on China policy. During the Presidential debate, Trump mentioned he would increase tariff on Chinese goods. His focus is on trade deficit, not geopolitics. An ‘America First’ policy reflects an isolationist strand. The Biden Administration has imposed restriction on supply of semi-conductor chips to China. In the Presidential debate, Kamala Harris cited this as an area where Biden has been tougher on China than the previous Trump administration.

The battle over semi-conductors is not simply about preserving US’s technological edge over China. The access to advanced US technology has built up Chinese military muscle. Taiwan is home to the world’s largest semi-conductor fabrication facility. As the Chinese military threat to Taiwan grows, there is realisation that the world needs resilient supply chain. China in turn is threatening to impose its own restrictions on the supply of critical minerals needed for semi-conductor manufacture.

While a Democrat Administration will continue support to Ukraine, Trump has said he will bring the Ukraine war to an end. The continued US preoccupation with the war in Europe is bound to impact on the resources it can deploy to counter China threat in the Asia-Pacific.

Wilmington Declaration

The joint statement issued at the end of the Quad Leaders’ Summit referred to the Asia-Pacific region, and stated ‘We seek a region where no country dominates and no country is dominated’. The Declaration covered Maritime Security, Quality Infrastructure and Critical and Emerging Technologies. The Quad members will try to achieve interoperability at sea as well as security of undersea cables in the Asia-Pacific.  It will advance cooperation on semiconductors and ‘enhance resilience of Quad’s semiconductor supply chains.’

The Declaration expressed serious concern ‘about the situation in the East and South China Seas.’ It condemned ‘the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels.’ This was a reference to Chinese Coast Guard ramming a Philippine ship. The Declaration also mentioned the ‘importance of maintaining and upholding freedom of navigation and overflight’. China has been increasing its military activities in the Taiwan Strait. The elephant in the room was China, which was not mentioned.

On Ukraine, the statement mentioned the need for ‘a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace’ and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.’  On Gaza, it ‘condemned’ the terror attack of October 7, 2023 and called for ‘release of all hostages and an immediate ceasefire’. It expressed support for a ‘two-state solution’.

The Declaration included references to terrorism and Security Council expansion. It condemned terrorist attacks including the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai and Pathankot. While the statement mentioned Security Council expansion, it did not endorse any particular candidature. The long list of claimants ranging from Asia and Africa to Latin America and Caribbean States was, curiously, silent on Europe’s (read Germany) claim.

Summit of the Future

The Pact of the Future adopted by the Summit enunciated a series of unexceptionable principles. But it did not lay down any time-bound action program, or commitment to provide resources to achieve those goals. The section on Climate action includes formulations agreed upon earlier. But it does not provide any resources. The section on UN Reform acknowledge the need for expansion of the Security Council to make it more representative. But it does not mention whether it will cover expansion of the permanent as well as non-permanent members’ categories or only one.

PM Modi also addressed a very well attended diaspora meeting in New York. His visit has highlighted India’s role in the Asia-Pacific region. The Quad’s future course will be known only after the inauguration of the new Administration in the US. The Summit of the Future spans a wider canvas. With a divided Security Council, the issues of peace and security as well as reform of the UN face challenges. While geopolitical tensions continue, can we take advantage of China plus one strategy to attract more FDI in India?