Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | What's driving optimism at Davos 2023

A Davos logo is seen before the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: REUTERS/Ruben Sprich/File)

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What a difference two days of schmoozing with the super-rich and Fortune 500 CEOs in an Alpine Swiss town makes!

Perhaps it is the bracing air, or perhaps it is the warmth that comes for huddling with people swathed in Brunello Cucinelli parkas and Valentino capes, but the optimism in the voices from Davos 2023 is unmistakable.

(Follow Moneycontrol’s complete coverage from Davos 2023 here)

The International Monetary Fund has also jumped on to this bandwagon. In a video message yesterday, the fund’s First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath talked about how while 2023 is a tough year, “there are signs of resilience”.

“There are signs of resilience with strong labour market in several countries, including US and Europe,” Gopinath continued. “We’re seeing consumption holding up in several parts of the world. We expect global growth to bottom out this year, but improve towards the second half of this year and into 2024.”

This optimism seems to stem from the fact that high frequency data from the developed markets has generally been positive in recent times, raising hopes that the world will avoid a recession.

Moreover, there is the emerging view that China’s COVID pandemic has probably peaked. “There's pent-up savings, there's pent-up demand, so we think that China will see very strong growth, especially as you get later in the year,” Douglas L. Peterson, the President and CEO of S&P Global, told a panel discussion at Davos, reported Reuters. Our columnist Ajay Bagga points out that China's re-opening may be the biggest story of the year, with major implications for the global economy and markets.

But it is also pertinent to remember that ‘polycrisis’ is the buzzword at Davos. Uncertainty still rules and the way global outlooks are changing quarter by quarter means we have to take all this with a pinch of salt. After all, the WEF's Global Risks Report says, “As an economic era ends, the next will bring more risks of stagnation, divergence and distress.”

In India, most eyes are turned towards the budget. Our research team has tried to answer this question: Will the Indian markets rally, post Budget 2023? Short answer—yes, is likely to. You can read the reasoning here.

In our daily Budget Snapshots feature, we point out that there have been more misses than hits in the government's plans on disinvestment. Isn't it time to reset disinvestment goals and process in the Union Budget 2023? See the trend here.

Investing insights from our research team

ICICI Lombard posts strong earnings in 9M FY23, health segment gets top billing

Agri-input sector: Will it get the much-needed boost from the budget?

What else are we reading?

Budget 2023: A few critical steps can drive the auto sector’s growth ambition

The Chinese dragon is in danger of losing its teeth

What could brighten the outlook for FMCG stocks

GuruSpeak | How this part-time options trader makes the most of data analytics

What just happened at Cognizant

Chart of the Day: Imports resilient, non-petroleum exports better than expected

It’s time to look beyond subsidy and view agriculture as a value chain

India will weaken if government and judiciary keep duelling

Global capitalism: There’s life in the old dog yet (republished from the FT)

What the Kardashians can teach climate activists

Why Goldman Sachs is far, far behind Morgan Stanley

Technical Picks: BEL, TCS, Britannia Inds, Asian Paints and Copper (These are published every trading day before markets open and can be read on the app).

Ravi KrishnanMoneycontrol Pro