Karnataka | With Congress-JD(S) farce over, can BJP form a stable govt?

Here’s a fun fact about Karnataka: Since 1956 (following the state reorganisation) only three politicians have been able to complete their full term as Chief Ministers. The three were: D Devaraj Urs (1972-77), SM Krishna (1999-2004), and Siddaramaiah (2013-2018). So it was only a matter of time before Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy stepped down. On the bright side, we will not see an emotional HDK, as he’s popularly known, crying about how helpless he feels or why he stays and operates out of a five-star hotel in Bengaluru.

On July 23rd, after more than two weeks of nauseating ‘resort politics’, the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition government fell, exactly 14 months after it came to power. The 2018 assembly elections gave a split verdict where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 104 seats was the biggest party, but fell short of majority by nine seats. It was then that the Congress, with 80 seats, and the JD(S), with 37 seats, decided to join hands to keep the BJP at bay.

The Congress, which was also desperate to form the government, decided to give the JD(S) the CM’s post — and that’s how HDK became Chief Minister for a second time. The first time too he became Chief Minister, back in 2004, when the BJP (with 79 seats) decided to back the JD(S), which had just 58 seats.

German thinker and political theorist Karl Marx said that history repeats itself first as a tragedy and then as a farce. Though Marx had Napoleon and his nephew in mind, it aptly describes the sorry state of Karnataka’s political leadership. If it did not work the first time, only an optimist like Congress leader Rahul Gandhi would believe that backing the JD(S) would work a second time. In fact Karnataka’s political history shows that coalitions with the JD(S) seldom work.

If HDK’s first tenure as CM lasted a year and eight months, this time it has reduced to a year and two months. In addition to his faith in astrology, if Kumaraswamy believes in the law of diminishing returns, it’s time he gave his brand of politics a rethink. In the 2008 assembly elections, the people of Karnataka punished the JD(S) with just 28 seats — it’s lowest ever tally. Judging its performance now, the people are unlikely to be kind to the JD(S) in the next election.

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Viju Cherian

Opinion Editor|moneycontrol.com

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Ever since it missed the opportunity to form the government 14 months back, the BJP’s argument has been that the people chose it. This is far from the truth. If the people’s choice in Karnataka was the BJP, it would have won more seats to form a government on its own. The first-past-the-post electoral system, coupled with the TINA factor and lack of awareness (and effectiveness) of NOTA all combined to help the BJP. (This is true about the other parties as well). Be that as it may, now that the coalition government has fallen, it is up to the BJP to form a new government.

In the 2008 assembly election the BJP won 110 seats and formed a government which completed its term. However, the internal rumblings in the BJP saw three chief ministers in these five years. If BS Yeddyurappa is sworn-in as the new CM, this will be his fourth time. This first time he was CM for seven days; the second time for 38 months, and, the third time for six days. If a pattern is drawn from this, it seems the fourth time Yeddyurappa will have a longer term as CM.

For the sake of the people of Karnataka it is hoped that the new government will be stable and complete the remaining term.

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