Karnataka Elections: Can its hardfought foray into JD(S)’s Vokkaliga base backfire for BJP?

Over the last few elections, BJP has been able to win support from some sections of Vokkaligas in urban Bengaluru and Mysuru, and in districts of Coastal Karnataka.

The influential Vokkaligas could well decide the fate of main contenders in the Karnataka elections. Vokkaligas have acted as anchor voting segments of their patriarch Deve Gowda’s party, Janata Dal (Secular), in state elections. Bharatiya Janata Party’s failure to cross the halfway mark on its own in the state is mainly on account of its low appeal in the Vokkaliga heartland.

Vokkaligas account for 11 percent of the state's population. Six Chief Ministers of the state have hailed from the community. 42 Vokkaliga MLAs were elected in the 2018 assembly elections, 23 from JD(S), 11 from Congress and 8 from BJP.

Vokkaligas are the dominant caste in the Southern Karnataka region of Old Mysuru and Bengaluru , which includes the districts of Mandya, Bengaluru Rural, Hassan, Kolar and Chikballapura. There are 75 seats where their population is more than 10 percent.

The highest number of these seats are in Bengaluru (29) followed by Old Mysuru (24) and Central Karnataka (11). On six seats, their population is more than half of the constituency size.

Split Voting: PM Modi, CM Vokkaliga

The JD(S) has been winning the Old Mysuru region primarily because of support from the community. The Adichunchunagiri Matha, the lone Vokkaliga mutt located in the Mandya district, holds significant clout over the community.

However, over the last few elections, BJP has been able to win support from some sections of Vokkaligas in urban Bengaluru and Mysuru, and in districts of Coastal Karnataka.

A split voting pattern has been observed amongst the Vokkaligas over the years. While the community has backed JD(S) in state elections (43 percent from 2008-18), they have supported the BJP in general elections (39 percent from 2009-19).

With a Kuruba (Siddaramaiah) and a Lingayat(Bommai) favourites to be CM faces of Congress and BJP, JD(S) hopes that the Vokkaligas, who strongly desire to have a slice of the power pizza, may once again back the party and make Gowdas kingmaker in a hung assembly situation.

JD(S) has given 55 tickets to candidates from the Vokkaliga community, Congress 45 and BJP 42, suggestive of the space each party is able to make for Vokkaligas.

BJP: Many Strategies, Elusive Goal

The Congress has just one card and hopes its state unit president DK Shivakumar can woo the community votes. However, the party not projecting him as the CM face could cost it dearly.

The BJP, in contrast, had a layered approach. It has taken four steps to woo the Vokkaligas but somehow they haven’t clicked:

* Announcement of additional two percentage points in reservations for the Vokkaliagas apportioned equally with the Lingayats from the minority quota of 4 percentage points has been put on hold by the Supreme Court

*Padma Vibhushan to former CM and Vokkaliga leader SM Krishna is perhaps late in the day as he has retired from active politics

* Unveiling of Rs 100 crore statue of Kempegowda, founder of Bengaluru, outside the international airport was marred by faux pas of allegedly not inviting ex-PM Deve Gowda to the event

* R Ashoka and CN Ashwath Narayan were made Deputy Chief Ministers in Yediyurappa cabinet but they lacked the charisma and clout of the Gowda family or Shivakumar

BJP’s hardcore Hindutva agenda has not worked either, a prime example being how the narrative to tar Tipu Sultan as anti-Hindu has struggled to capture the Old Mysuru region’s imagination. In recent years, BJP has played up the historically close ties between the Adichunchunagiri Matha and the Yogi Adityanath-headed Gorakhnath Math, but with little success.

Vokkaliga Neo-Converts, Lingayat Jealousies

There are 44 seats where Vokkaligas determine the outcome (population more than 25 percent), the JD(S) won 19 and 24 of these in 2013 and 2018 elections respectively, propelling HD Kumaraswamy to the CM chair in 2018. The BJP has always won the least number of these seats.

The problem for BJP is that the Lingayats and Vokkaligas are antagonistic vote blocs, because of their political rivalry and one-upmanship.

Kumaraswamy during his first term in 2008 had denied rotational power to BJP leader BS Yeddiyurappa, forcing early elections. In 2019, Yediyurappa scored revenge  dislodging Kumaraswamy from the CM chair with the help of defectors. This has added to the mistrust between the two communities.

Then how come they vote together in Lok Sabha for the BJP? First, Lingayat support for the BJP is very high here compared to Vokkaligas (68 percent vs 39 percent). Secondly, in Lok Sabha elections, they are not competing with each other for the PM position.

Winning Vokkaligas, Losing Karnataka?

Congress has alleged that JD(S) is the B-Team of BJP. BJP alleges that Congress and JD(S) have an underhand deal to defeat the saffron party.

The BJP is playing for a long haul and hopes to win over Vokkaligas in state elections after Deve Gowda retires from active politics. Kumaraswamy lacks his father’s charisma and appeal; the family conflicts may weaken the party beyond repair.

But here’s the big catch. BJP fears an aggressive campaign to lure the Vokkaliga vote from the JD(S) could divide the community vote, thus helping the Congress with a more dispersed social base in the largest region of Old Mysuru, the last thing which BJP would want to do.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.