Is BJP pinning its hopes in Maharashtra on Narayan Rane?

Union Minister Narayan Rane

The July 7 Union Cabinet reshuffle set political observers working overtime to analyse the implications of this big rejig. A closer look will give a hint at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) preparing the ground for political developments in different states — for example, with 14 members, Uttar Pradesh has the highest representation in the Union Cabinet. This is expected to help the BJP in the 2022 assembly polls in UP.

The second highest is from Maharashtra: nine members. Under normal circumstances Maharashtra will go to the polls in 2024 along with the general elections — but, ever since the Shiv Sena broke it alliance with the BJP and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the BJP has been threatening to bring down the government. The induction of senior politician Narayan Rane into the Union Cabinet needs to be seen in this light.

A Losing Streak

However, here the BJP seems to be making the same mistake the Congress made way back in 2005, when the grand old party thought that by inducting Rane the party could electorally wrest both the Konkan region (which was Rane’s turf) and the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation from Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.

The Congress’ calculations went wrong and Rane’s aura steadily declined within the party: in the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections he lost many seats that he was expected to win for the Congress; and, in 2009 during the assembly polls a similar script played out in the Konkan region.

In 2014, Rane lost the assembly elections from Kudal (a seat in his stronghold) by more than 9,000 votes. A year later, Rane lost to then Shiv Sena leader Trupti Sawant contesting the Bandra (East) seat by 19,000 votes.

Rane’s Elevation

This brings us to the question: What value does Narayan Rane bring to the table? The answer is that he brings an in-your-face bluster that was alien to the Congress. Rane’s is a style that eminently suited to the Shiv Sena under Bal Thackeray. What helped him rise in the party ranks was his brazen style of politics and it caught Bal Thackeray's attention. One can expect the BJP to use Rane to put pressure on the Shiv Sena, and as someone who was in the party and knows its vulnerabilities Rane could also be tasked to influence party leaders, especially its MLAs.

Rane’s elevation can be seen as an admission that despite the use of every tactic in the book for the past few months, the BJP has been unable to break the MVA government — despite putting pressure through central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate against both Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar (of the NCP) and some Shiv Sena MLAs.

Khadse’s Exit

The ED has also been knocking on the door of former BJP minister Eknath Khadse, who is currently with the NCP. Khadse was once considered to be former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’ mentor. The grapevine is that Fadnavis found Khadse to be a potential threat and eased Khadse out of his government. Khadse was singled out at a time when at least 15 other ministers in Fadnavis’ Cabinet were facing various criminal and corruption charges against them.

Khadse hails from Jalgaon in north Maharashtra where he was the BJP's sole vote winner and lost his footing in the party after he resigned from the state Cabinet in 2016. In October he quit from the BJP and joined the NCP. With Khadse’s exit the BJP is believed to have also lost its grip on the region.

There is no case to defend Khadse because the allegations against him seem to be true, but the raids could also be a tactic to either bring him back to the BJP, or blunt his impact in the region.

Task Ahead

If Khadse is guilty of financial misdemeanours, the spotlight needs to also fall on Rane and Kripashankar Singh, the former Mumbai Congress chief who joined the BJP on July 7, as they also face allegations.

In 2019, during the crisis over government formation, it is alleged that Fadnavis had entrusted Rane with influencing and bringing over MLAs from the Shiv Sena and the Congress; but Rane failed. Now, with municipal elections due in Mumbai in 2022, it is imperative for the BJP to break the Shiv Sena stranglehold on the municipal corporation.

Rane may or may not succeed in delivering the goods, but his induction has clearly given the BJP a new lease of life in Maharashtra. In the process, Fadnavis may have been pushed to a secondary position in the state.