Can SpaceX’s Starship spawn a revolution in international air travel?

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SpaceX has failed to fully test its Starship launch vehicle as the rocket spun out of control and was destroyed mid-air. Nevertheless, the team feels the launch is a partial success and has gathered critical data for the next attempt in the coming months.

The Starship is a fully reusable rocket that SpaceX claims can transport 100 people on long-duration interplanetary travel and about 100 tonnes of cargo to Mars with the help of on-orbit refuelling. SpaceX also intends to revolutionise terrestrial air travel using the Starship.

Air Travel Possibilities

The Starship hosting the passengers will launch on a Super Heavy booster from a barrage. Once in space, the Super Heavy booster separates and lands back on the barrage while the Starship continues its hypersonic journey towards its destination.

SpaceX claims that transport between any two points on the planet can be completed within an hour using this model. For example, a London to Hong Kong flight spanning more than 9,500 kms can be completed in about 35 minutes against the current travel time of 12 hours. The volume of the pressurised section of the Starship is more than that of an Airbus A380. With enough passengers and flight frequency, the price of a seat on the Starship is expected to not go beyond the current premium class tickets.

SpaceX believes the company’s wisdom of reusing the launch vehicles will help keep fares low. Elon Musk has often cited the reusable nature of aircraft as the key to affording air travel. Previously, his company granted a discount in the launch cost for satellite companies willing to fly on refurbished rockets. In fact, SpaceX has estimated that Starship can cost less than India’s GSLV Mk II by employing reusability.

Operational Issues

The flight-proven technologies and the experience of successfully landing the booster stages on both barrages and on the land lends credence to SpaceX’s vision. However, the company must overcome a myriad of challenges before witnessing a successful mission.

Unlike aircraft landing at airports in the vicinity of towns and cities, the Starship launch/landing pads are specially created barrages near the seas. While this ensures safety of a launch, fast transport to and from these barrages is yet to be solved. The launch facility is specially engineered and hosts several high-end technologies. Whether the countries hosting these barrages and other overland facilities are allowed to participate in the business, like airlines and airports, remains a key financial question.

Placement of the launch facility is another area of concern. The territorial waters, Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the High Seas seem contiguous but impose different regulations and offer varying degrees of freedom according to the zone. SpaceX could enjoy more freedom and control of its facility on the High Seas, but not in the territorial waters that are closest (12 nautical miles) to the shore.

Safety Challenges

Moreover, global financial destinations like Singapore and Hong Kong sit close to congested waterways while the United Arab Emirates shares a maritime border with Iran. A London-Dubai flight will see the Starship launch on a ballistic trajectory (hypersonic speed) in northern Europe with re-entry performed over the Middle East and landing near the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, the North Korean air defence radars can be expected to pick up the Starship flight from Los Angeles to Tokyo or Shanghai.

The commercial aircraft fly slower (subsonic speed) and stay within the atmosphere. Still, several mishaps have occurred in the last few decades due to lack of proper radar capacity, lack of information sharing or the need for an immediate response in a congested zone.

Iran Air Flight 655, a commercial flight, was shot down by the US Navy in 1988 in one such situation. Iran’s air defence system shot down Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 in 2020 after mistaking it for a cruise missile. Investigation into the loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 revealed the plane was shot down over the Ukrainian separatist zones.

The Starship may not be able to fly again following such an incident, unlike the airplanes. The fate of the commercial supersonic jet, Concorde, was sealed following an accident in 2000. The rising operational costs ultimately forced the suspension of this business in 2003. SpaceX can assure safety from accidents but ensuring security from air defence systems on hair-trigger alert requires communication and information sharing with a host of countries.

Don’t Write Off Traditional Airlines

Considering the global movement towards cleaner energy sources and utilisation, mitigating the air and maritime pollution will also remain a key concern. The airline industry is experimenting with a range of cleaner fuels.  However, the major competition for SpaceX’s business comes from the rebirth of commercial supersonic aircraft.

American Airlines has ordered 20 supersonic jets from Boom Aerospace. The company also received orders from United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic for these jets. This model is taking the next logical step in the business while trying to avoid previous financial mistakes.

SpaceX is yet to put in place other pieces of the ecosystem to decidedly unlock a use case for its Starship launch vehicle while competing with traditional airlines also promising increased speed with infrastructure upgrades.

Vidya Sagar Reddy is a research analyst on outer space affairs. He tracks Indian, Chinese and American space activities. Vidya has published book chapters and research articles in the Astropolitics and NewSpace journals. He also provided analyses for The Space Review, SpaceNews, East Asia Forum and DNA. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.