Can AAP win Punjab, or will it see a repeat of 2017?

(File Image: Reuters)

Was 2017 its best chance, or will 2022 be the year of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab?

The AAP seemed all set to form its government in Punjab in 2017 till a few weeks ahead of the assembly elections then.

There were reasons for that. The debutant party had stunned everyone with its impressive performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, winning four seats and narrowly losing three out of the total 13 seats in Punjab.

It was a big surprise for AAP that didn't expect to win any of the 400-plus seats it had contested then, not even from its bastion Delhi.

The results had kindled huge hope in AAP leaders that the people of Punjab would give them the mandate after being ruled by two parties — the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) — for decades.

But a few blunders, including one by its chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who spent a night in the house of surrendered Khalistan Liberation Front activist Gurwinder Singh in Moga, swung the elections in favour of the Congress, then led by Captain Amarinder Singh. The presence of too many NRIs in its campaigning had also antagonised the people of Punjab.

The Hindu voters were particularly angry with AAP's perceived overtures to the radical Sikhs. This perception got strengthened after some SAD leaders claimed that the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had directed its cadre to vote for the Congress.

However, AAP still managed to be the second-largest party with 20 seats in the 117-member assembly. The SAD-BJP combine was pushed to the third spot.

After the 2017 experience, AAP and Kejriwal visibly lost interest and the momentum in the state. Kejriwal, who ran an aggressive anti-drugs campaign in Punjab promising to send many SAD leaders to jail, later apologised to former minister and Sukhbir Singh Badal's brother-in-law Bikram Singh Majithia for defamatory remarks against him.

It was left to the Lok Sabha member from Sangrur, Bhagwant Mann, to keep the party flag flying in the 2019 national elections. Many leaders such as noted lawyer HS Phoolka and some legislators had by then abandoned AAP.

Five years later, Kejriwal and his party are now trying hard to mend fences and going for course correction. The ride does not seem to be as smooth this time.

First, there are too many players in the fray. Apart from the Congress, there is the SAD-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) combine, the BJP has joined hands with Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress, while the farmers have floated their own parties — the Samyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM) of Balbir Singh Rajewal, and Gurnam Singh Chaduni’s Samyukt Sangharsh Party (SSP).

The possibility of a divide in the anti-incumbency vote in multi-cornered contests is very high.

Second, Kejriwal has not named Mann as AAP's chief ministerial candidate, and has sought public opinion on who should be the party's face. Mann is arguably one of the most popular leaders of Punjab right now, and the AAP's best bet, but is he not Kejriwal's obvious choice? It would appear that the Delhi CM thinks Mann is a non-serious candidate, though the cadre favour him. Kejriwal's refusal to name the CM candidate had impacted the party's prospects in 2017 as well.

However, AAP is back in the reckoning now. Why? Again, one of the factors is the fatigue that has set in after 10 years of the SAD-BJP rule followed by five years by the Congress. There is a visible pro-change sentiment, and that has rekindled hope in AAP.

Besides not repeating its past mistakes, AAP's poll promises are also getting good traction on the ground, to the extent that it has forced other parties, including the ruling Congress, to announce similar sops—which include free electricity, water, and financial assistance to women.

Unemployment is one of the major issues in Punjab, and the youth seem to be angry with the Congress, the SAD, and the BJP for not addressing the problem.

All parties, except the BJP, had supported the farmers in their agitation against the three agriculture laws, and their vote was largely expected to go to AAP, till the SSM and the SSP entered the poll fray. Kejriwal has admitted that the farmers' outfits could cut into AAP's vote share.

That said, it would be interesting to see if the youth power coupled with anti-incumbency propels AAP to power on March 10, or whether like 2017, Kejriwal's party chokes at the last moment.