Budget session will test BJP as Money Bill route for its economic agenda may not be available

Without a majority in the Lok Sabha this time, the BJP and PM Modi are not in the same strong position.

Both houses of Parliament adjourned sine die this week. The brief sitting provided a precursor for future sessions. The session witnessed a reinvigorated Congress-led opposition taking head on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the first time in the past decade.

As the tone has already been set, the next face-off between the two sides will be seen in the upcoming budget session, likely to begin on July 22.

Budgets Depend on Money Bills

Money Bills are introduced in the Lok Sabha and passed by a simple majority. The Rajya Sabha does not vote on Money Bills.

With numbers on its side, the BJP, in the past 10 years, had used the Money Bill route to pass not only the Union Budget’s tax proposals, but also key economic legislations such as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act.

The amendments suggested by the Rajya Sabha to a Money Bill are irrelevant as the Lok Sabha is free to accept or reject those. Without a majority in the Lok Sabha this time, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are not in the same strong position in pushing through economic legislation without addressing concerns of other parties.

Allies Matter Now

The results of the Lok Sabha elections marked the return of the coalition era after a decade. The BJP along with its pre-poll allies such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) crossed the halfway mark to form the government. On the other hand, the combined opposition strength stands at 234.

BJP also does not have a majority of its own in the Rajya Sabha and is dependent on allies and 'friendly' parties for passage of its legislative and economic agenda.

Accommodation Is No Longer An Option

That means, the BJP will have to be more accommodating this time. And with an emboldened opposition, a glimpse of its combativeness was seen in the first session, the government will not have smooth sailing in Parliament as far as getting its key legislation passed in both Houses. In that case, it will be interesting to see if the government is willing to neutralise the opposition onslaught by opting for the Money Bill route for the Budget and its other important economic agenda.

Friends Turned Foes Make Things Trickier

The Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which had supported the Modi government on all contentious issues and key legislative matters in Parliament in the past decade, has shown the first signs of dissent when its members joined the Opposition in walking out of the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday when PM Modi was replying to the Motion of Thanks to the President's Address in the Upper House.

The BJD has reasons for breaking ranks with the BJP. Naveen Patnaik's party was ousted from power in Odisha by the BJP after 24 years and it also failed to open an account in the Lok Sabha elections this time. With a strength of nine in the 245-member upper house, the BJD's stand will be crucial for both the government and the opposition.

The BJP's second bellwether ally, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), has so far played ball despite the BJP's pre-poll alliance with its arch-rival TDP. It remains to be seen how long the YSRCP will continue to support the NDA government given that Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu has dropped enough hints that he will will soon go after his predecessor YS Jaganmohan Reddy who has several criminal cases pending against him. But with 11 members in the Rajya Sabha and four in the Lok Sabha, the YSRCP is another key party that the government will bank upon for its legislative business.

Standing Committees of Parliament May Be Crucial

The return of the coalition politics has also increased the chances of more bills getting scrutinised by parliamentary standing committees that are critical for the law-making process in the country. The opposition often alleged that the Modi government had bypassed parliamentary committees in passing important legislation on several occasions in the past.

With the increase in its tally, the opposition is expected to chair more panels this time as compared to the past. The heads of the 30 parliamentary committees will be divided between the NDA and the opposition.

BJP Signals Flexibility

Unlike the past, the BJP has accommodated its partners in key cabinet committees this time. Janata Dal (Secular) leader and Heavy Industry and Steel Minister HD Kumarasamy and Janata Dal (United) leader and Panchayati Raj and Fisheries Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh have been included in the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA).

TDP leader and Civil Aviation Minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu has been taken in the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs (CCPA). Similarly, Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is a member of the Cabinet Committee on Investment and Growth while Hindustani Awami Morcha chief Jitin Ram Manjhi is a part of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs.

Two ministers from other alliance partners -- Jayant Chaudhary of Rashtriya Lok Dal and Pratap Rao Jadhav of the Shiv Sena (Shinde) -- are special invitees to the Cabinet Committee on Skill, Employment and Livelihood, and Cabinet Committee on Investement and Growth, respectively.

This is a noticeable change since October 2020 when all the cabinet committees had only BJP ministers. The then LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan was till September 2020 the last minister from a coalition partner to be included in any such committee.

A LoP After 10 Years

It’s the first time in a decade that the Lok Sabha formally has a Leader of the Opposition (LoP) with the Congress getting over 10% of the total 543 seats. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi is now the LoP. The acrimonious exchanges between him and PM Modi indicated that the two will continue to be at loggerheads with each other in the future.

Modi-Rahul face-off in selection panels

Rahul Gandhi will now be a part of the all-important PM-led selection committee that zeroes in on candidates for key constitutional positions such as the Chief Election Commissioner and two election commissioners, head of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Chief Vigilance Commissioner (CVC) and the Lokpal.

Deputy Speaker Selection Will Be Critical

During the first session, the LS witnessed an election to the Speaker's post after 48 years. The opposition is now demanding the Deputy Speaker's post as by convention the post goes to the opposition.

The INDIA bloc is likely to nominate Faizabad giant-slayer and Samajwadi Party member Awadesh Prasad, for the Deputy Speaker's post. The temple city of Ayodhya, the site of the Ram Temple, falls under this Lok Sabha constituency. Prasad has already been seated in the front row between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav.

To conclude, the BJP, unlike in the past, will face a tough time in getting its legislative agenda, especially contentious bills, passed given a combative opposition and its dependence on allies in both Houses.