BSP is on the verge of extinction in Uttar Pradesh

Mayawati (File image: Reuters)

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has received a drubbing in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. It has recorded its worst performance since inception, largely due to a bipolar contest which saw its non-core as well as some core voters shift to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The BSP has blamed the media for creating the perception of a bipolar election, and feels its core voter shifted to the BJP for fear of return of lawlessness if the SP comes back to power. There are also allegations that the BSP is the B-team of the BJP, and the BSP has systematically transferred its votes to the saffron party which helped it face the Mandal 2.O onslaught by the SP.

The BSP, once a pioneer of Dalit politics in UP and rest of India, has now been converted into a family-controlled party by Mayawati, and faces an extinction threat as it does not have any clear succession plan in place. The BSP is still living in its past glory, and has not adapted to new-age politics. It is still very much rooted in caste politics.

The BSP has emerged victorious on just one seat recording a vote share of 12.9 percent. The party has lost support among its core vote block of Jatavs (-24 percent) and non-Jatavs (-28 percent). While the BSP still receives majority support of Jatavs (the community from which Mayawati hails), the party has slipped to number three position among non-Jatavs.

The BJP has gained 20 percent of the non-Jatav support, the SP has also been able to make dent in this vote block which shows the part success of SP leader Akilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi-plus-Ambedkarite strategy to woo the Dalits. The BSP also lost considerable support among non-Yadav OBCs (-7 percent), minorities (-16 percent) and Yadavs (-8 percent).

Over the years, the BSP has failed to expand its vote base, and in-fact lost its Brahmin and Muslim support received in 2007 to the BJP and the SP respectively. Its vote share, more than two-third, still comprises of support from the Dalits.

(Source: CSDS – 2017 & Axis – 2022)

(Source: Author’s Calculations)

The party has lost its non-core votes (minorities, the OBCs) to the SP, and some core vote (Jatavs/non-Jatavs) to the BJP. The BSP has lost 9.5 percent vote share compared to 2022, 3.2 percent has been lapped up by the BJP and 6.3 percent by the SP.

Inaccessibility and non-visibility of Mayawati, her late, even half-hearted entry into UP campaign scene, the exodus of top leaders, the family control, and the party not in real contention has cost the BSP dearly. This has caused disillusionment even among its core voters. Whoever has remained with Mayawati is mostly due to Dalit pride and identity politics.

Her actions in the recent past, the BSP breaking up its alliance with the SP after Lok Sabha elections 2019 despite benefitting immensely from it, and her tacit support to the BJP on passage of key Bills in the upper house, has created a trust deficit among minority and other anti-BJP voters.

Mayawati has lost her sheen, reads out her speeches, and has lost the midas touch with the voters. She is dependent on aide Satish Chandra Mishra, a Brahmin face, who is not a mass leader in UP.

After this aghast performance, the BSP may also lose its national party status too.

The Road Ahead

The party risks going into oblivion if it doesn’t take immediate steps to reverse the slide. The BSP needs to identify young talent from its cadre base and promote them. It needs to create alternative leadership from all sections of the society. It is rumoured that her nephew Akash Anand could be her political heir, but he is very young, and doesn’t enjoy the confidence of the core vote bank.

The party needs to move away from caste-based politics to needs- and aspirations-based politics. It needs to revive its sarvjan philosophy which helped party win the 2007 state elections. The BSP will have to prepare an alternative vision for Uttar Pradesh.

The vote share loss could be temporary, and can be regained if the BSP raises the people’s issues more than the SP, maintains ground connect, and helps people in their lives. The BSP needs to give confidence to its core voter base that party is an ideology and it is here to stay.

Communication and visibility are key tools for the Opposition to make its presence felt. The BSP needs to seriously up its game on these two counts.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.

Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.