After Goa debacle, Mamata Banerjee must revise her plans for TMC

File image of West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee (Image: PTI)

Sayantan Ghosh 

Citizens of Goa gave a short and crisp message to the Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee: there is no room for lazy politics.

The TMC received just 5 percent votes in Goa, and lost all the seats it contested from. After landing in Goa just three months before the assembly election, Banerjee forged an alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP).

The TMC not only lost the election miserably, but also failed to hold back their alliance. On the night of the election results, the MGP, which won two seats, broke away from the TMC-led alliance, and extended its unconditional support to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which won 20 of the 40 seats in the assembly.

Banerjee announced her national expansion ambition after the historic victory in the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections. Immediately after the election, she started bringing several leaders from the Congress and other political parties at the national level. Her first venture was the civic polls of Tripura, followed by the outing in Goa. The TMC performed poorly in both.

Banerjee’s emphasis was simple. First, she wanted to take away the Congress’ vote share. This is why she targeted the states ruled by the BJP where the Congress was on the decline. Second, with the help of her popularity, political connections across the spectrum, and political grit, Banerjee wanted to portray herself as a more acceptable opposition face than Congress’ Rahul Gandhi.

The TMC is not the first political party that has tried to take away the Congress’ vote share. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) did this in Punjab in this assembly election, and in Delhi since 2015.

What went against Banerjee was the lack of an in-depth political strategy, a state-specific narrative, booth-level support, and credible faces to lead the campaign in Goa.

The TMC could learn from AAP, which worked in Punjab for more than five years to achieve this landslide victory of winning 92 of the 117 assembly seats there.

One of the key learnings for Banerjee should be bringing down her over-dependence on poll strategist Prashant Kishor, and the I-PAC. Kishor’s ability to turn around the fortunes of political leaders and parties has been demonstrated in the past. However, there is also the view that he has helped strong leaders/parties get stronger, and has not been very successful in turning around the tide in favour of the underdog or a rank outsider.

After the TMC’s West Bengal victory, the party signed a contract with I-PAC till 2024. According to the contract, I-PAC will be first sent to states where the TMC hopes to expand its footprint, where the ground would be laid for TMC’s leaders to waltz in and take it from there. This approach has its drawbacks as a political party cannot establish a respectable and permanent base through PR, media hype, and poaching politicians from other parties. The party needs to adapt and adopt the language and culture to have deep roots.

West Bengal is considered to be the gateway of the Northeast. The TMC recently registered ~17 percent vote share in Tripura civic polls, by bringing down the Congress’ vote share from 24 percent to 2 percent. In Meghalaya, the TMC, in an overnight political coup poached 14 of Congress’ 17 MLAs to become the main opposition in the assembly. The TMC will need to bolster its efforts in Assam, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh.

With about 25 Lok Sabha MPs and 14 Rajya Sabha MPs the TMC has an incentive to increase its focus in the region. Also, Tripura, Assam, and Meghalaya have a significant Bengali-speaking population where the TMC can reach out effectively.

Banerjee needs to revise the TMC’s plans. Rather than stretching itself thin over many states, the party must focus in select states where it has a greater chance. In that vein, why hasn’t Banerjee not visited Meghalaya after her party became the main opposition there? If her plan is to weaken the BJP, why not focus on the Northeast where the Congress is no longer in a position to give the saffron party a tough fight.

Sayantan Ghosh is a Kolkata-based journalist. Twitter: @sayantan_gh. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.