Yogi Adityanath's bypoll triumph sets stage for 2027 domination

Yogi’s slogan 'batenge to katenge' became a rallying cry

The Uttar Pradesh by-elections have delivered a resounding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the party securing a 7-2 seat outcome. This result is a major morale booster for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, especially after the BJP's poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. With Uttar Pradesh often regarded as the bellwether of national politics, these by-polls offer crucial insights into the state’s evolving political dynamics ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.

The by-election results come as a much-needed validation of Yogi Adityanath’s leadership. Five months ago, the BJP’s loss of 29 MPs in Uttar Pradesh during the Lok Sabha elections raised significant questions about the Chief Minister's strategies and his ability to steer the party through challenging times. However, Yogi responded to the setback with swift action, revamping his approach by strengthening grassroots connections and holding the bureaucracy accountable for delivering results.

This recalibration appears to have paid off. The BJP’s by-election victory has not only reaffirmed Yogi’s leadership but also injected fresh energy into the party cadre. “This is a booster dose for our workers,” said Vijay Bahadur Pathak, a senior BJP leader. “The results demonstrate that when we work unitedly under Yogi ji’s guidance, the BJP is unstoppable.”

'Batenge to katenge'

A defining feature of BJP’s campaign in the by-elections was its emphasis on unity. Yogi’s slogan, “Batenge to katenge” (If we divide, we will be cut), became a rallying cry, resonating across party lines. The message was amplified by other leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who echoed the sentiment during a campaign in Maharashtra, stating, “Ek hain to safe hain” (If we are united, we are safe).

This messaging struck a chord with voters, reinforcing the BJP’s narrative of collective strength and discipline. Political analysts believe the emphasis on unity was instrumental in securing BJP’s victories, both in Uttar Pradesh and in other states like Maharashtra. It also underscores the party’s ability to craft compelling narratives that resonate across diverse demographics.

RSS ramps up support for Yogi

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent of the BJP, played a pivotal role in the by-elections. While the Sangh's involvement in Uttar Pradesh was reportedly limited during the Lok Sabha elections, the by-polls saw a marked shift. The RSS threw its full weight behind Yogi, recognising his crucial role in consolidating BJP’s position in the state.

During a high-level meeting in Mathura, the RSS not only endorsed Yogi’s leadership but also backed his unity-focused slogan. A senior RSS functionary remarked, “Yogi ji’s vision aligns with our principles of societal cohesion. His leadership is integral to ensuring the BJP's continued success in Uttar Pradesh.” This endorsement cements Yogi’s stature as a key figure in both the BJP and the Sangh, further elevating his role in shaping the party’s future.

Opposition in disarray

In stark contrast to BJP’s cohesive campaign, the opposition remains fragmented and ineffective. The Samajwadi Party (SP), which positioned itself as the BJP’s main challenger, managed to win only two seats. The results expose the limitations of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy, which relies heavily on caste-based vote banks but lacks a broader narrative to counter the BJP’s development agenda.

“The SP’s failure to capitalise on anti-incumbency is glaring,” said Rajesh N Bajpyee, a political analyst. “Akhilesh Yadav needs to rethink his approach if he hopes to remain relevant in Uttar Pradesh politics.” The results also raise concerns about the efficacy of the INDIA alliance in the state, particularly given the strained relations between the SP and Congress.

The Congress, on its part, continued to cede ground in Uttar Pradesh. By abstaining from contesting most seats, ostensibly to maintain alliance harmony, the party risked alienating its workers. In Phulpur, Congress District President Suresh Yadav rebelled and contested independently, only to secure a dismal 1,365 votes, forfeiting his deposit. This poor performance highlights the Congress’s organizational weaknesses and its inability to mobilize even its traditional support base. A more coordinated effort from Congress could have bolstered the SP's chances in several constituencies.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) continues its downward spiral, facing a significant erosion of its voter base for the third consecutive election. The by-election results reveal that more than 60% of BSP’s traditional vote bank from the 2022 assembly elections has shifted to other parties. The Dalit community, once a cornerstone of BSP’s support, has distanced itself from the party, while the BSP also failed to win the trust of Muslim voters.

Looking ahead to 2027

The Uttar Pradesh by-elections have provided a snapshot of the state’s political landscape as it gears up for the next major electoral battle. While the BJP has regained its footing, the road to 2027 will depend on how effectively the party consolidates its gains. For the opposition, particularly the SP and Congress, the results are a wake-up call, underscoring the need for introspection and strategic recalibration.

As the dust settles, one thing is clear: Yogi Adityanath’s leadership stands validated, and the BJP’s grip on Uttar Pradesh remains unshaken. Whether this momentum translates into long-term success will depend on the party’s ability to address voter expectations and maintain its narrative of unity and development.