Why a diminished Delhi mandate could push Arvind Kejriwal's AAP back to basics

Exit poll predictions for the Delhi elections have painted a grim picture for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. (File Photo: AP)

An abrupt halt to its plans for national expansion, a question mark on its positioning as a key challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the possible impact it could have internally within the Aam Aadmi Party are just some of the challenges that former Delhi Chief Minister and party convener Arvind Kejriwal would need to brace for, if the exit poll predictions for the Assembly elections held in the capital were to hold true on February 8 when the poll results are announced.

Born out of Anna Hazare's Lokpal movement, the AAP, even in its worst times over the last decade that it has been in power in the capital, has never really faced a crisis of this proportion. If the exit poll estimates are to be believed, the AAP could be staring at a defeat at the hands of the Bharatiya Janata Party with whom it has shared an increasingly bitter relationship during its two terms in government.

If exit poll results hold, the AAP could be staring at its first stint in the Opposition. However, as it goes with exit polls -- the results could well prove the projections wrong. Even if one were to take these projections with a pinch of salt (remember Haryana?), there is one major takeaway for AAP as per the trends most pollsters have projected -- a fall in its tally from the highs of 67 and 62 in the 2015 and 2020 polls, respectively.

The AAP, on its part, has rejected the exit poll findings while the BJP has welcomed the projections as an indication of what February 8 will hold. Conservatively speaking, a tight race between the AAP and BJP appear to be the silver lining for an AAP supporter.

However, even a tight race may not be enough to tide over the AAP's woes. With their top leadership, including top leaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia embroiled in a litany of legal challenges, and the sword of disqualification always dangling over their heads, anything less than a convincing victory for AAP may not be safe.

The AAP witnessed the exit of seven of its MLAs resign just days ahead of the Delhi elections over denial of tickets. The possibility of similar disgruntlement by a larger section of its rank and file in the scenario of a reduced mandate is not completely ruled out.

The watchful eyes of an on-the prowl BJP could only exacerbate the challenges for AAP with Kejriwal tasked with an additional responsibility to keep his flock together in the event of a mandate that goes down the wire.

A defeat, on the other hand, would push AAP deep into crisis and possibly back to where it was before it took giant strides. The AAP has been in power in Delhi ever since its formation and is yet to gain the experience and develop resilience to be an effective Opposition.

Barring Delhi, Punjab s the only state where the AAP is in power. However, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is known to be a man on his own and is unlikely to act pliant just to be in Kejriwal's good books. There has been chatter that Mann has been tough to rein in. An AAP loss in Delhi would only embolden his standing as an alternate power centre.

Moreover, a defeat could deal AAP's own image -- along with its leaders -- an irreparable hit. A fairly reduced mandate would mean a fall in its popularity and the party losing its halo of invincibility. Its much-touted 'Delhi model' would have failed and will struggle to wriggle out from the shadow of Yamuna pollution and the alleged liquor scam.

Having failed to mark in states other than Delhi and Punjab, a diminished mandate in Delhi would deprive AAP of a position of clout within the Opposition's scheme of things. The AAP, which has grown at the cost of Congress in states where it has been in a direct contest with the BJP, has tried to position itself as among the principal challengers to the BJP and prime Minister Narendra Modi. All that and more could change on February 8.