Vice President election: Why electing Dhankhar's successor is a bigger challenge for INDIA than NDA

Opposition MPs including Lok Sabha LoP Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav at a protest outside Parliament on Wednesday. (PTI)

The sudden resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar as the Vice President and Chairman of the Rajya Sabha has triggered murmurs of disquiet within the NDA camp which is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the Election Commission of India's initiation of the process to elect the new Vice President also places the onus on the Opposition to get its act together.

Two days after Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned from the post of Vice President, the Election Commission (EC) on Wednesday issued a statement saying the process for the election of next Vice President has been initiated and the formal notification of the election schedule will be released soon.

Also Read: How Dhankhar's unscheduled meeting with President Murmu alarmed Rashtrapati Bhavan staff

"Election Commission of India starts preparations relating to the Vice-Presidential Elections, 2025. On completion of the preparatory activities, the announcement of the Election Schedule to the office of the Vice-President of India will follow as soon as possible," read a statement by the EC, noting that the Ministry of Home Affairs has duly notified Dhankhar's resignation.

Articles 63 to 71 of the Constitution and the Vice-President (Election) Rules, 1974, govern the Vice President's election process. According to the rules, a formal election must be held within 60 days of Dhankhar's resignation and before September 19, 2025.

Also Read: Dhankhar’s resignation linked to Justice Varma? How VP’s action holds key to impeachment motion

Unlike the presidential elections, the electoral college for the Vice President only includes Members of Parliament of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, and does not include state legislators.

The combined effective strength of both Houses of Parliament stands at 787 and the winning candidate would need at least 394 votes to be elected. As numbers currently stand, the BJP-led NDA has 422 MPs, including the nominated members who are likely to support the NDA nominee.

The 422 MPs include 293 in the 542-member Lok Sabha, and 129 MPs in the Rajya Sabha where the effective strength of the House is currently 245. Of the five vacancies in the Rajya Sabha, four are from Jammu and Kashmir and one from Punjab.

This would leave the NDA enough breathing room to sit pretty and watch how the Opposition dynamics play out on the matter.

While the Opposition maintains that it would field a candidate for the V-P elections despite the lack in numbers just put the ruling alliance to test, putting up even a symbolic contest would be easier said than done.

For, many INDIA bloc constituents haven't really seen eye to eye on a number of issues over the past year. The Aam Aadmi Party, for instance, has already walked out of the INDIA bloc, stating that their arrangement was limited to the Lok Sabha elections.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) openly blamed the Congress for the alliance's defeat in the Maharashtra elections last year. Several other parties have also raised questions on the Congress' credentials to assume the leadership role in the alliance despite back-to-back defeats and depleting numbers in Assembly elections.

The Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee and the Congress have rarely found common ground and often accused it of adopting a big-brotherly attitude despite its own dwindling standing.

Opposition leaders also admit that the onus of coordinating a contest would rest with the Congress which remains the biggest constituent of the Opposition bloc.

"They will need to consult all parties, bring everyone on board. The coordination will have to be done by the Congress. Since the resignation was so sudden and unexpected, the process will have to start from scratch," a Samajwadi Party leader told The Indian Express.

Congress sources, however, claim that they are up for the challenge. Despite the NDA having a clear advantage in terms of numbers, the Opposition would like to use this opportunity to put up a united fight - more so to send out the message that the NDA's clout was gradually decreasing.

"We have coordinated with our allies on several issues and brought INDIA bloc parties together on the Pahalgam attack and Bihar Special Intensive Revision (SIR). We will do the same for this," a Congress Rajya Sabha MP told IE.

Going by sheer numbers, the margin of victory for an NDA nominee is expected to be significantly lower than the last two vice presidential elections that saw M Venkaiah Naidu and Jagdeep Dhankar being elected to the post.

The first vice-presidential election held under the Narendra Modi government in 2017 saw NDA nominee Naidu go up against Opposition's candidate Gopal Krishna Gandhi. The NDA nominee won the election by 272 votes.

In 2022, the NDA picked Dhankhar as it nominee who went up against Opposition candidate Margaret Alva. The NDA candidate won the election by an even bigger margin of 346 votes as the Trinamool Congress abstained from voting claiming that it was not consulted before the Opposition announced Alva as its vice presidential nominee.

With the NDA's Lok Sabha tally dropping significantly from 343 in 2019 to 292 in 2024, the Opposition has an opportunity to send out a strong message of unity by forcing a close contest, only if it manages to get its act together.