UP’s Ghosi bypoll first litmus test in NDA vs INDIA opposition alliance battle

With the Congress and the BSP not in the fray, the Muslim votes in the constituency are likely to go to the SP in Ghosi

With the upcoming Ghosi bypoll in Uttar Pradesh’s Mau district on September 5, the stage is now set for the first direct contest between the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ahead of the 2024 general elections.

While SP chief Akhilesh Yadav will campaign for his party candidate Sudhakar Singh on August 29, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath plans to address a rally in Ghosi on September 2.  Votes will be counted on September 8.

According to a report by Deccan Herald, SP winning this bypoll would not only strengthen party president Akhilesh Yadav's position within INDIA bloc, but it can also make him the leader of the Opposition alliance in UP. Besides, it will embolden the mega opposition alliance in UP.

The Ghosi assembly seat went vacant after Dara Singh Chauhan, who was elected as an SP MLA in the 2022 UP assembly elections, joined BJP.

Over the weekend, the Congress announced its support to Sudhakar Singh after the SP issued an appeal for support from the Opposition “to protect democracy”. SP allies Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) have directed their workers to back the SP and ensure BJP candidate  Chauhan’s defeat, stated a report by The Indian Express.

From riding on the slogan ‘PDA’—pichda (backward), Dalit and alpsankhyak (minorities)—to pitching labhartis (beneficiaries of government schemes),  SP and BJP leaders are trying every move to woo voters for the bypoll.

BJP has also started deploying organisational leaders and workers on 455 polling booths of the assembly seat.  According to official data, Ghosi has 4,30,452 voters, of which 60,000 are Rajbhar, 50,000 Chauhan (Nonia-OBC), around 40,000 Yadav (they are all OBCs) and 60,000 Dalits. There are around 90,000 Muslim voters.

According to a report by the Indian Express, BJP had deployed the organisational prowess at its disposal, including ministers and allies such as the NISHAD Party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), to counter the anti-incumbency Chauhan is facing.

With the Congress and the BSP not in the fray, the Muslim votes in the constituency are likely to go to the SP but the Dalit votes will be up for grabs. The SP is also hoping that fielding a Rajput candidate will help it dent the BJP’s upper caste vote bank.

Mau-based political analyst Pankaj Singh told Newsclick that a Chauhan win in Ghosi will “boost the BJP’s morale to wheel out the OBC narrative to take on the Opposition”.