Rajya Sabha elections on June 19: Tight race in Assam, all eyes on seat-sharing in Tamil Nadu

The Election Commission of India has announced polling for 8 seats on June 19. (PTI)

The Election Commission of India on Monday announced the schedule of elections for eight Rajya Sabha seats with voting scheduled to be held on June 19. Of the eight seats which are set to fall vacant in the next two months, six are in Tamil Nadu while two fall in Assam.

The BJP-led NDA currently has 128 MPs in the Upper House while the Opposition has 89 MPs. Neutral parties such as YSRCP, BRS, BJD, BSP and MNF collectively account for 20 Members of Parliament in the 245-strong Rajya Sabha while eight seats are vacant.

Tight race in Assam

Polling has been announced for two seats in Assam with the terms of Birendra Prasad Baishya of NDA ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the BJP’s Mission Ranjan Das ending on June 14.

The ruling BJP-led NDA currently has 80 MLAs (including 64 of the BJP, 9 of the AGP and 7 of the UPPL). The Opposition, on the other hand, includes 26 legislators of the Congress which is likely to get the backing of the lone CPI(M) MLA and eyes support of 15 MLAs of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and three MLAs of the Bodoland People's Front (BDF).

The support of the AIUDF and BPF for the Congress would take the Opposition's tally to 45 MLAs. The Assam Assembly has 126 MLAs and each Rajya Sabha candidate would require 42 votes to secure a victory.

With 80 MLAs, the NDA is confident of winning one of the two seats falling vacant comfortably. However, it may fall short of 4 votes to win the second unless it secures the support of at least four legislators from the Opposition camp. Notably, the Election Commission of India bars political parties from issuing a whip to its MLAs for voting for a particular candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections.

Confusion in Tamil Nadu

Six Rajya Sabha seats are falling vacant in Tamil Nadu with the terms of Anbumani Ramadoss (Pattali Makkal Katchi), N Chandrasegharan (AIADMK), M Shanmugam (DMK), P Wilson (DMK), M Mohamed Abdulla (DMK) and Vaiko (MDMK) set to expire on July 24.

In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the INDIA bloc has 158 MLAs which includes 133 legislators of the DMK, 17 of the Congress, 4 of the VCK and 2 each of the CPI and CPI(M). The NDA, on the other hand, has 75 MLAs, including 66 of the AIADMK, 4 of the BJP and 5 of the PMK.

Each candidate would require at least 34 votes to be declared the winner. With 158 MLAs, the INDIA bloc looks set to win 4 Rajya Sabha seats comfortably. On the other hand, the NDA, with 75 MLAs, is poised to win two seats.

Unlike Assam, where the Congress is attempting to upset the BJP, it is the suspense over the choice of candidates from either side of the political divide which has made the election interesting.

The BJP and the AIADMK announced an alliance in the state earlier this year after parting ways post the Lok Sabha elections. The reunion saw the exit of BJP's firebrand leader K Annamalai as the president of the state unit. It remains to be seen if the AIADMK would return the favour with a Rajya Sabha seat.

A similar scenario is unfolding in the INDIA bloc where Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is hoping to be compensated with a Rajya Sabha seat over its decision not to contest the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. The MNM joined the INDIA bloc ahead of the Lok Sabha elections but did not field any candidates in the polls.