President Dissanayake's NPP scripts landslide victory in Sri Lanka elections: What does it mean for India?

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake

In a thumping vote of confidence for Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, his Leftist coalition National People's Party (NPP) on Friday won over two-thirds majority in the parliamentary elections.

The NPP, contesting under the Malimawa (compass) symbol, secured 113 seats in the 225 member assembly, data released by the election commission's website showed.

Formed in 2019, NPP's rise in Sri Lankan politics has been phenomenal. The party saw a sweeping mandate in the polls, including surprise backing from the north and east of the country which is home to the minority Tamil people. THe coalition had just three seats in the outgoing parliament.

The support will provide a significant boost to Dissanayake, who faces the critical challenge of steering the nation's economy out of a financial crisis while working with lawmakers who have little experience.

But how does NPP's victory impact Sri Lanka's ties with neighbouring India?

The fate of India's ties with Sri Lanka was sealed in September when Dissanayake triumphed over stalwart politicians and became the new president.

The parliamentary victory will now bolster legislative support for Dissanayake's policies and help address the economic and political challenges the island nation has been grappling with for many years. It will also give further shape to the country's engagements with neighbours like India and China.

A Leftist leader, Dissanayake, and by extension his Marxist-Leninist party JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), are pro-China.

Under him, industrialist Gautam Adani’s $440 million wind power project in Sri Lanka faces a big risk since Dissanayake has decided to reconsider the approval granted by the former government.

That notwithstanding, Dissanayake's tightening grip on power in Sri Lanka is unlikely to sting India that much.

After his victory in September, India was one of the first countries to congratulate Dissanayake. A report in The Times of India said that New Delhi would have preferred former president Ranil Wickremesinghe for the sake of continuity, especially since India took strategic efforts to build goodwill with the island nation.

However, India's recent outreach to Sri Lanka, which includes assistance worth $4 billion during the economic crisis, puts New Delhi in a better position to tackle its ties with the new administration.

An article in the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) said earlier that Sri Lanka is likely to maintain a balance in ties between India and China due to the current economic and geopolitical scenario. The nation is likely to see a big shift from the approach taken by the pro-China Rajapaksas.

Dissanayake made this amply clear after winning when he said that his government was committed to whatever was in Sri Lanka’s best interest.

Thus, pragmatism is likely to take precedence over other implications.

ORF further said that many promises in Dissanayake’s manifesto, such as developing Sri Lanka into a maritime hub, a port and trading hub, and a regional logistics management hub, will rely on the island nation;s connectivity with India.

His push to boost tourism and information technology in the country will also require help from India.

"It is this growing importance of connectivity and economic leverage that has prompted JVP to be sensitive to India’s concerns," ORF said.

Moreover, the report said that scrutiny of debt and a strategic push to foster new investment conditions may not sit well with China, which is largely held reponsible for Colombo's debt crisis.

Dissanayake visited India earlier this year on New Delhi's invitation. During an interivew he said that Sri Lanka depends heavily on India for medicines.

He even acknowledged that survival would not have been possible had India not provided food aid to Sri Lanka."Even though we may possess independent capabilities, strong international relations, particularly with India, are indispensable in navigating the current crisis," he said.