In Bangladesh crisis, India’s immediate threat is refugee influx, not military: Ex-diplomat Dilip Sinha

Unrest in Bangladesh

India’s first major response towards the unrest in neighbouring Bangladesh and allowing a safe passage to former prime minister Sheikh Hasina has been extremely pronounced and well-received. Without a comprehensive asylum law, India cannot extend the benefits that a regular asylum seeker may demand.

New Delhi has, however, made its stand clear by allowing her to settle down for now till Hasina decides on a country for her protracted stay. Speaking to Moneycontrol, former diplomat Dilip Sinha, who served as the deputy high commissioner of India to Bangladesh from 2002 to 2004, addressed a host of issues starting from India’s immediate security concerns to consolidating the strong India-Bangladesh ties.

On India’s first reaction to the crisis in Bangladesh...

India’s first reaction to the unrest in Bangladesh has been on expected lines. We have helped Sheikh Hasina to find a ‘safe shelter’ in India. The Border Security Force has been helping traders, officials and minorities to escape from the violent mob. Media reports say scores of Hindu temples and business establishments run by Hindus in Bangladesh have been attacked by the mob after Hasina was ousted as the PM.

On immediate security threat from Bangladesh...

There is no security threat from the military but the immediate threat is of a possibility of large influx of refugees into India. Due to our long border, the security personnel are being extremely vigilant and on guard. The influx of refugees into many of the northeastern states is already a big concern. The influx can happen because of two primary reasons - the breakdown of law and order in Bangladesh and the targeted killings by Jamaat-e-Islami members. The refugee issue not only has the potential to cause a demographic change, but may pose a major policing challenge. There is no threat from the Bangladesh Army. There is a close cooperation between Indian and Bangladeshi security personnel. From joint training to intelligence sharing, the army-to army ties have come a long way.

On military’s role in containing the unrest...

The military has played a decisive role. The very fact that the military facilitated Sheikh Hasina’s exit from the country speaks volumes about how the security personnel tried its best to normalise the situation. It was apparent that the army had a good understanding of the issue at hand and thought wise to advise the PM to resign. Various senior army personnel, speaking to the media, accepted that the situation was so severe that it was almost impossible to contain the growing unrest without resorting to large-scale killings. A reported figure of 300-400 casualties resulted due to police action.

On continuing India’s policy towards Bangladesh...

First and foremost, India must coordinate with the interim government to defuse the situation in the country. Although an immediate return to normalcy can’t be expected after months of agitation, New Delhi must press upon it in the ensuing months. A troubled neighbour will always pose a threat to India. In the long term, India must focus on consolidating our strong ties with Bangladesh. Additionally, good India-Bangladesh ties is a win-win for both the countries. The growing ties during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure has led to prosperity on both sides. In the long run, New Delhi must look to consolidate on the ties that have been carefully nurtured over the years.

On foreign hand behind upstaging Sheikh Hasina...

The reports on foreign intervention can’t be ascertained at this moment. At the same time, one can’t discount such a theory. Among the agitators, a powerful faction is Shabab-e-Milli - the youth wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh. The link between Shabab-e-Milli Bangladesh and Shabab-e-Milli Pakistan is well known. There have been reports citing the Shabab-e-Milli (Pakistan) involvement in Bangladesh's domestic affairs. These groups have fomented trouble in the country as well.

On safety of Indian citizens and diplomatic community in Bangladesh...

Indian diplomats are safe in Bangladesh. New Delhi has ensured that the security and safety of Indian nationals are well in place. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, addressing the Parliament categorically appealed to the authorities in Bangladesh to ensure the security of Indian nationals in Bangladesh. In no uncertain terms, New Delhi has appealed to the Bangladeshi authorities to ensure the safety of our people there.