How Trump's risky moves gave momentum to India-China thaw

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and PM Narendra Modi

Relations between India and China remained frosty for a better part of the last five years, plunging to a historic low after the deadly Galwan Valley clash of 2020. Flights were suspended, Chinese apps banned, visas denied and sharp rhetoric exchanged, while troop deployments along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remained largely unchanged.

Signs of a thaw emerged late last year when external affairs minister S Jaishankar said diplomatic engagements had set ties "in the direction of some improvement". He had earlier announced that 75 percent of LAC disengagement issues had been resolved.

In recent days, efforts to reset ties have gathered pace — with direct flights resuming, the Kailash Mansarovar route reopening and talks advancing on border trade and troop disengagement. High-level exchanges, including an upcoming Modi–Xi meeting at the SCO Summit, now signal a deliberate push to rebuild trust.

Interestingly, US has given an inadvertent thrust to this positive momentum, bringing the two Asian giants closer at a time when President Donald Trump's tariffs have caused disorder in the world.

The irony is hard to miss since US pivoted to India in recent years to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region and saw in New Delhi a serious security partner. While the strategic power play may still hold value, the current global picture has blurred the lines between allies and friends.

In a recent article, The New York Times noted that how the "sudden rift" between India and US injected new momentum into an "easing of tensions between China and India."

Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution, told NYT that "a breakdown of political trust between New Delhi and Washington works in Beijing’s favor.”

In a recent Op-Ed published in The Times of India, Vijay Gokhale, former Indian ambassador to Beijing, noted that despite many diverging interests between India and China, New Delhi's strategic, economic and technological interests lie in working with China amid the "Trumpian disorder".

Gokhale argued that India’s Indo-Pacific vision is not about excluding China but about safeguarding its own interests. While competition with Beijing is inevitable regionally, he said India must work with China at the global level, where Beijing has acted as a counterweight to the West.

A Lowy Institute analysis observed that Trump’s tariff war is undermining India’s ties with US and driving New Delhi to engage more pragmatically with Beijing, despite underlying rivalry and disputes.

American economist Jeffrey Sachs put it crudely in a recent remark, describing Trump’s tariffs on India as “stupid” and implying that such moves only encourage India to diversify its international partnerships, including with countries like China.

A CNN report said that America's willingness to antagonise a key partner like India has also baffled observers, with some arguing that the Trump administration lacks a coherent China strategy.

However, the NYT report said that any reset in ties will be on Beijing’s terms — requiring India to ease restrictions on Chinese firms and investments, even as New Delhi remains wary after past setbacks.

“China will not make significant concessions or sacrifices,” Lin Minwang of Fudan University told NYT, pointing to Beijing’s continued support for Pakistan.

He said that India’s recent gestures are strategic in nature given the strain in relationship with US, suggesting that Beijing will assess these developments "cautiously".

Speaking to CNN, Milan Vaishnav, director of South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the future of ties between India and China will be one of duality. He said that there could be greater economic cooperation coupled with strategic rivalry.