From 'India Out' to Muizzu's protocol break for Modi: India-Maldives ties take a turn as China watches closely

Best known for pristine beaches, stunning coral reefs and balmy weather, Maldives is the last place on Earth that would be expected as a stage for a geopolitical war.

But the island nation with over 1,000 atolls and islands located in the middle of the Indian Ocean has been at the heart of a turf battle between two major Asian powers – India and China.

Both nations have been trying to bolster their presence in the islands that have geostrategic significance. Till two years ago, China seemed to have greater influence over the leadership of the islands that are home to east-west shipping lanes.

When Mohamed Muizzu's People's National Congress registered a thumping victory in the keenly-watched parliamentary polls, the pro-China undertones were very clear.

Winning 63 seats out of the 93-member Parliament, Muizzu had roared to power largely on the ‘India Out’ campaign. His first state visit to Beijing instead of New Delhi and his minister’s anti-India remarks showed that Maldives was slowly and surely inching towards China.

But two years later, the mood in Male is full of Indian tricolours instead of Chinese red. Muizzu breaking protocol to receive Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows the strategic shift between India and Maldives. The tight embrace between President Muizzu and PM Modi goes beyond a photo-op. China, on its part, must be watching its influence waning — or so seems to be the case.

What was the ‘India Out’ campaign?

The 2023 parliamentary elections in Maldives had one key issue – sending back Indian troops. In a clear departure from the “India First” policy, Muizzu promised that he would send back Indian troops stationed in the island nation to make sure that there is no ‘Indian influence’. Back then, India had sent 85 military personnel to maintain and operate two choppers and a plane. The aircraft were gifted by New Delhi a few years ago. Maldives demanded India to take back the troops. New Delhi complied with the demand and replaced the military personnel with civilian staff. While leaders of the island nation maintained that the campaign was against the military and not the people of India, the mood was largely against New Delhi.

Not-so-hidden dragon

As soon as Muizzu came to power, China went out of its way to woo Maldives. This saw the President visiting Beijing instead of the tradition of New Delhi being the first state visit. Later, Maldives also inked a pact with China for ‘non-lethal’ weapons at no cost. Beijing also agreed to train Maldivian soldiers. This was again a big move distancing the island nation from India, as previously, Indian and American troops used to give that kind of training.

The balancing act

South Asia Institute's Michael Kugelman says that Muizzu has been trying to balance the power game with both China and India. While Maldives has gravitated towards Beijing when it comes to the defence sector, Muizzu wants New Delhi’s help in commerce as well as economics.

While the relationship between Maldives and India worsened after PM Modi promoted Lakshadweep, the island nation wants to put the past behind. Many in Maldives felt threatened, as promotion for Lakshadweep was seen as an answer to Maldives. A country that has tourism making up a third of its economy, the simple post by PM Modi triggered protests. But all that is ancient history — for now.

Maldives will try to ‘welcome’ Indians again. As per the 2023 data, over 2 lakh Indians visited Maldives. This was the highest number of visitors from any country. But the political changes in Maldives and Maldivian ministers’ statements made many Indians shun the island nation for other options.

Future forward

When PM Modi attends Maldivian Independence Day celebrations tomorrow, it will usher in a new diplomatic reset for both countries. With UPI launch. And other key trade agreements, India will seek to win the brinkmanship over China in the Indian Ocean region.