Fearing delimitation, southern states now rethinking population control

From taking pride in the success of their family planning programmes, the southern states are now talking about providing incentives for those having more children. Leading from the front is Tamil Nadu, the largest state in terms of population in the south, and its Chief Minister MK Stalin.

The reason? The fear of the looming delimitation exercise, which will increase the seats in the Lok Sabha in absolute numbers, but reduce southern states’ share in the total number of seats in the House in comparison to the northern states. And, the threat is close as the delimitation will take place on the basis of the Census proposed to be held after 2026.

Even though Union home minister Amit Shah said on Wednesday that the South will not lose a "single seat" on account of delimitation, the fear still looms.

READ | Delimitation row: Southern states won't lose seats on pro-rata basis, says Amit Shah in Coimbatore

Stalin was categorical: “Today, as there is a scenario of decreasing Lok Sabha constituencies, it raises the question why should we restrict ourselves to having fewer children?” And, he added, half-jokingly, but more importantly, half-seriously: “Why not aim for 16 children?” He was alluding to a traditional blessing for newly wed couples, but he was certainly underscoring the adverse political implications of couples increasingly opting for a small family.

The realisation of reduced representation from southern states because of delimitation based on population found articulation last year when Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu observed that the population control policy in his state could be reversed to address the issue. Immediately Stalin lent a supportive note with regard to Tamil Nadu.

Studies have shown that the southern states have a higher aging population and the birth/fertility rates are lower. In a span of two years between 2019-21, Tamil Nadu had an average fertility rate (average number of children born to women during their child-bearing years) of 1.4 (along with West Bengal) while Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (along with Punjab and Himachal Pradesh) recorded 1.5. States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh showed high fertility rates of 3, 2.7 and 2.6 respectively.

Having implemented the population control programmes diligently, these states were able to concentrate more on development and education. Now these economically and socially advanced states are threatened with reduced representation in the federal structure.

“As the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, I bring to everyone's attention that the Lok Sabha delimitation exercise based on the 2026 Census is extremely dangerous. Southern states like Tamil Nadu have done a great job in controlling population growth. But if that is the reason why our strength in Parliament will decrease, if it can suppress our voice, how can it be justified?” Stalin said on Tuesday, announcing an all party meeting to be held on March 5.

The current limit on the number of Lok Sabha seats of 543 is due to expire at the end of 2026. Basing the delimitation on population count, according to a study by James and Kriti suggested that Tamil Nadu will lose nine seats, Kerala six and Andhra Pradesh five. On the other hand, states gaining seats would be Uttar Pradesh 12, Bihar 10 and Rajasthan seven if the total seats remained the same at 543. However, the total seats in Lok Sabha is likely to go up after delimitation. While Tamil Nadu and other states in the south will gain seats, the northern States will gain much more, thus reducing the political influence of the south.

But, is the reversal of population control or incentives to women to beget more children a solution to the issue? Would it not affect the economic independence of the women? While China provided a bad example of population control through the one-child formula as it is now burdened with an aging population, Japan and South Korea tried incentivising reproduction leading to economic strain.

Various suggestions have come forth with regard to improving the share of youth in the population, including migration. Population count being the yardstick for delimitation has also been criticised. But either way it has become a critical issue in Tamil Nadu. Stalin is leaving no stone unturned to invoke Tamil pride and unite the political class behind his demand.

In fact he has been vehemently opposing the new NEP as a mode of imposing Hindi on the state. Earlier this week a BJP functionary Ranjana Nachiyaar quit the party on Tuesday in protest against three-language formula and joined actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). NEP language formula as well as NEET are part of the agenda of the March 5 all party meeting.

Meanwhile, speaking at a function in Coimbatore on Wednesday evening, Union Home Minister Amit Shah denied that the delimitation process would reduce the seats in southern states. He contended that no seats would be lost as it would be allocated on a pro-rata basis. Alleging that Stalin was lying, Shah said that Prime minister Narendra Modi has already assured the Parliament that the southern states would not lose a single seat.

But for Tamil Nadu, it is not a question of increase in seats, but of whether the state’s influence on national politics will come down after the delimitation process as the northern states will make much bigger gains on the basis of a fresh census.