Congress blows hot and cold on alliance with SP in Uttar Pradesh: Will 2027 see a 3-way battle?

Even as Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav reiterated that the opposition INDIA alliance remains intact, conflicting signals from within the bloc have raised fresh doubts about the durability of this partnership in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.

Moments after Yadav publicly backed the alliance, a senior SP leader privately indicated to this reporter that the party may go solo in 2027 or, at best, offer the Congress just 40 seats out of 403. Almost simultaneously, Congress's Uttar Pradesh in-charge Avinash Pande struck a more conciliatory note, asserting that the alliance is in place and under active supervision of the national leadership. Yet he also warned, “Nobody should take us for granted. If the Congress does not get respect... we want to be prepared for all 403 seats.”

This dual messaging—public assertion of unity and private posturing for dominance—reveals a significant fault line in the INDIA alliance. The Congress, emboldened by its improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, is no longer content to play the junior partner in Uttar Pradesh.

Alliance fatigue or strategic posturing?

Behind the scenes, Congress leaders are weighing alternative alignments. Some within the party see a potential tactical advantage in exploring ties with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which, they believe, could offer them a better seat bargain. “If we enter an alliance with BSP, we can demand up to 200 seats,” a senior Congress functionary claimed, hinting at deeper recalibrations within the opposition camp.

The uncertainty over the Congress-SP seat-sharing formula comes at a time when the Congress has launched an aggressive internal restructuring campaign—Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan—across all 75 districts in UP. This is not just about revival; it is about leverage.

This initiative includes the appointment of trained professionals, restructuring of city and district units, and strict performance tracking of office-bearers. “This is not just an internal clean-up. It is a message to allies that we are rebuilding and will no longer settle for token participation,” said Maroof Khan, a senior Congress leader in UP.

Political analyst Rajendra Kumar sees the Congress strategy as both corrective and strategic: “The Congress understands that without a strong organisational structure, it will remain a junior partner. What we are seeing is a repositioning. Congress wants to build a base that allows it to negotiate from strength, not gratitude.”

Panchayat polls: A political barometer

Seen as a crucial stepping stone toward 2027, the 2026 panchayat elections—despite being non-partisan—are being treated by Congress as a litmus test of its ground strength and public appeal. “These polls reflect the ground reality,” said Avinash Pande during a review meeting in Braj region, which includes Agra, Mathura, and Bareilly. “If we succeed here, we will have a strong foundation for the Assembly elections.”

Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai echoed the strategy, stressing that the panchayat polls would signal whether Congress can demand a more equitable seat-share in the next alliance phase. “This is about reviving the party in rural Uttar Pradesh,” he said.

In tandem, the Congress is setting up internal accountability mechanisms. District and city unit heads are being asked to submit performance reports on each office bearer, with emphasis on voter outreach, booth presence, and local engagement.

SP bets on PDA and caste census push

On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is already executing its PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy that paid off in the 2024 general elections. The party has begun holding ‘PDA Panchayats’ across districts to consolidate support among backward classes, Dalits, and minorities. State SP president Shyam Lal Pal has been given charge of the programme, which aims to deepen caste-based mobilisation.

“We will intensify our demand for a caste census. It is essential to ensure that representation is proportional to population,” said a senior SP leader. The move aligns with the SP’s broader social justice narrative and gives it ideological grounding as it positions itself for 2027.

From junior ally to assertive partner?

The Congress’s resurgence in the 2024 general elections, winning 6 of the 17 seats it contested as part of the SP-Congress alliance, has clearly changed the dynamics. While the SP emerged as the primary challenger to the BJP with 37 seats, the Congress believes its revival is no longer symbolic.

Congress functionary Maroof Khan summed it up: “The alliance is very much alive. But if we want a respectful and suitable share, we need to be organisationally strong. That is why the focus is now on all 75 districts and the panchayat elections will set the tone.”

The contradictory statements from the two parties—where one speaks of unity and the other asserts autonomy—reflect a deeper political truth: both SP and Congress are entering a competitive phase under the guise of cooperation.

For now, the INDIA bloc exists more in rhetoric than reality in Uttar Pradesh. The next year—especially the panchayat elections—will determine whether this fragile coalition evolves into a cohesive force or fractures under the weight of competing aspirations.

As Rajendra Kumar aptly notes, “In Uttar Pradesh, alliances are transactional, not ideological. Unless the Congress or SP can decisively lead the narrative, this partnership will remain conditional—and temporary.”