BJP’s internal survey hints at major shake-up: Why 2027 could see record number of sitting MLAs dropped in UP

The BJP is preparing for a major shake-up in ticket distribution for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has set in motion an elaborate internal survey of its legislators in Uttar Pradesh, a process that party insiders believe will lead to an unprecedented churn ahead of the 2027 assembly elections. Early indications suggest that tickets of nearly 100 sitting MLAs may be cut, with at least 70–80 constituencies expected to witness fresh faces.

A senior BJP leader told a reporter that discontent is also growing among the public against BJP legislators. Complaints are pouring in that many MLAs remain inactive in their constituencies, fail to address even minor grievances of the people, and often behave rudely with voters. Allegations of illegal sand, morang and stone mining, along with irregularities in contracts and leases, have also reached corridors of power from Lucknow to Delhi.

Recently, in Jhansi, supporters of BJP MLA Rajeev Singh Paricha were accused of assaulting a passenger on a train. What made the incident more serious was that RSS joint general secretary Arun Kumar, who plays a key role in coordination between the BJP, the Sangh and the government, witnessed the assault live.

Learning lessons from the recent Lok Sabha elections, where the party's tally came down to 33 from 62 in 2019, the BJP is preparing for a major shake-up in ticket distribution for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls. According to party insiders, the leadership will not shy away from denying tickets to sitting legislators if they are seen as obstacles to the party’s goal of returning to power.

Sources said Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the RSS and top BJP leaders have set a single target—ensuring the BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. “Whoever stands in the way of this mission will be firmly sidelined,” a senior functionary remarked.

During deliberations in Delhi over the past two to three months, the consensus that emerged was that the party cannot afford to retain candidates on 160–180 seats if it wants to score a hat-trick in the state. This could mean that out of the BJP’s current 258 MLAs, nearly 100–120 may be denied tickets. Additionally, adjustments for alliance partners like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) will also result in candidate changes on some seats.

In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contested 376 out of 403 seats and secured victory on 255 of them. At that time, the BJP had an alliance with Apna Dal (S) and the Nishad Party. Apna Dal (S), which contested 18 seats as part of the alliance, won 12. The Nishad Party was allotted 10 seats and managed to win 6.

The grading system

The survey, which began in eastern and western UP and will later cover Kashi, Braj, Awadh and Bundelkhand, is built around a three-tier grading system. Legislators are being slotted into:

• Category A: Popular leaders with strong grassroots connect and positive public image.
• Category B: Average performers, seen as vulnerable but with scope for improvement.
• Category C: Weak legislators with poor perception, limited hold over voters or negative publicity.

A senior BJP office-bearer explained, “This is not a routine audit. It is an accountability mechanism. Leaders who have taken people’s support for granted will find themselves out of the race in 2027.”

This is not the first time the BJP has experimented with large-scale reshuffling. In the 2017 assembly elections, several sitting MLAs were replaced to neutralise anti-incumbency. A similar pattern was seen in 2022, when nearly three dozen legislators were denied tickets despite pressure from local units. The formula has largely worked in BJP’s favour, ensuring that voter dissatisfaction with individual MLAs did not translate into anger against the party.

Political analyst Rajendra Kumar said, “Unlike Congress or SP, where sitting MLAs often enjoy near-automatic renomination, the BJP has institutionalised periodic pruning. This keeps its cadre energised and also sends a message to voters that the party listens to the ground.”

Anxiety among MLAs

For the legislators, however, the survey has created unease. One two-term MLA admitted privately, “In BJP, your ticket is never guaranteed. Even if you are hardworking, perception surveys can go against you. There is always an element of uncertainty.”

Party insiders acknowledge the nervousness but defend the churn. “Winnability is the only criterion. The leadership will not hesitate to change seats or parachute in new faces if that serves the party’s interest,” a strategist said.

The survey is only the first stage. After reports are compiled, panels of three names per constituency will be prepared. District presidents, in-charges and MPs will make recommendations, while regional presidents will finalise panels. The final decision will rest with the state leadership and central observers, who will weigh caste balance, local equations, and the larger electoral strategy.

This balancing act will be critical. With the Samajwadi Party and Congress exploring tighter coordination under the INDIA bloc, caste alliances are expected to play a decisive role in 2027. By preparing early, the BJP hopes to neutralise any anti-incumbency while also reworking social coalitions.

The larger message

For Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the survey serves a dual purpose: ensuring a more efficient legislative team and signalling discipline within the ranks. For the central leadership, it is about keeping the party battle-ready for 2027, when expectations will be high after a decade in power.

Political commentator Rakesh Tripathi summed it up: “The BJP is making it clear that it is bigger than individuals. If 100 MLAs are replaced, it will be a message not just to voters but also to party workers — that performance and perception matter above all.”

If carried out as planned, the churn could be the largest reshuffle of BJP legislators in UP’s history, potentially reshaping the party’s grassroots leadership for the next decade.