Bihar Election 2025: Why Chirag Paswan's outsized demand is long on ambition, but short on record

Chirag Paswan, Union minister and LJP(RV) president. (File: PTI)

As seat-sharing talks for the upcoming Bihar elections gather pace in the NDA, Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan last week put forth "one condition" as part of the discussions. He is not bothered by the number of seats he wins, but rather the winnability of the seats his party contests in order to maintain his "100% strike rate" from the Lok Sabha elections last year.

But that may be just one of the many pretenses that Chirag continues to harbour. Behind closed doors, the LJP(RV) is believed to be driving a hard bargain within the NDA for anywhere between 40-70 seats for his party to contest during the elections.

Chirag's demand, though problematic on many counts, finds its foundation in two primary developments. The first, and the more recent, is the Lok Sabha election last year where the LJP(RV) bagged all five seats it contested as part of the NDA, finishing third in the state while the JD(U) and BJP finished on top with 12 seats each.

The second, and the bigger bargaining chip for the LJP(RV), is the impact that the party had during the Assembly elections in 2020 which it contested independently. Despite bagging just 1 seat of the 135 it contested from, the party managed to poll more votes than the margin by which JD(U) candidates came in second in 26 seats where the two sides went head to head.

Chirag's decision to field candidates in all seats where the JD(U) contested is believed to have been ne of the factors that resulted in Nitish's party tally dropping to 43 in 2020 from 71 in 2015.

While the fears of a similar outcome may be playing in the minds of the NDA partners as they finalise the seat-sharing arrangement, a task most likely to be taken up by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Chirag's demand far outstrip the LJP's own electoral record in the state.

Sample the following:

Since 2005, the party has fielded candidates in 632 assembly constituencies and won only 45 seats with a conversion rate of barely 7 per cent.

Across five elections, it has polled around 12 million votes, but these have been thinly spread across constituencies, with most candidates finishing in third place.

The party marked its best performance on its debut in February 2005, winning 29 seats with a vote share of 12.62 per cent. However, in the elections held in October the same year, when it contested 203 seats, the party's tally slipped to 10 seats with a vote share of 11.10 per cent.

In 2010, the party fielded 75 candidates, but managed to win only 3 seats with a much reduced vote share of 6.74 per cent.

In 2015, the LJP contested 40 seats as part of the NDA but managed to win only 2 seats with a vote share of 4.80 per cent.

In 2020, the party's first election under Chirag Paswan following the demise of his father and party founder Ram Vilas Paswan, LJP contested independently and fielded candidates in 134 seats. It, however, bagged only 1 seats with a voter share of 5.66 per cent.

Despite a modest electoral record over the past several elections, the LJP's demands for seats way beyond its capabilities has become synonymous with the NDA's seat-sharing discussions year after year.

Positioning itself as a custodian of Paswan Dalit votes in the state, the LJP has used it repeatedly as a bargaining chip to mount pressure on its alliance partners and managed to walk away with a handsome share of seats -- much more than what the party's record merits.

As per the 2022 Bihar caste survey, Paswans/Dusadhs comprise 5 per cent of the state's population which translates into around 6.94 million people. Of them, not all are of voting age and not all turn out to vote on election day. Moreover, experts point out that Paswan Dalits do not vote in blocs that are required to turn the outcome in a seat.

Yet, Chirag Paswan continues to project himself as the custodian of a decisive vote bank -- a claim he routinely uses to force the BJP's hand into either conceding more seats to him than his record merits, or risk alienating a section of voters he insists remain loyal to him. The 2020 election outcome is often invoked as both warning and leverage.

With little in his party's past record to suggest it can win even a fraction of the seats being demanded, Paswan has stuck to a familiar playbook. His latest ask of 40–70 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is yet another attempt to pressure the BJP into conceding more than his numbers justify.