As global diplomacy becomes more multilateral, India seizes its chances

Modi government plans to take G20 meetings and foreign affairs to the people

Multilateral diplomacy can “be defined as the practice of involving more than two nations or parties in achieving diplomatic solutions to supranational problems”, noted veteran Singaporean diplomat and academic Kishore Mahbubani, in a celebrated essay, published a decade ago.

Well, 2023 represents India’s moment of multilateral diplomacy. India will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit scheduled for July 3-4, where it is likely to welcome Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, in addition to a host of important central Asian leaders.

It will also host the subsequent G20 summit, slated for September 9-10, where India plans to champion the voice of the Global South throughout the year while leading the G-20 presidency. Here again — at least theoretically — it could have the Chinese leader and the Russian president as guests. Global South is a term used to refer to countries with a low level of economic development, which are mostly located to the south of industrialised nations.

At the helm of the G-20 and SCO, India seeks to establish its global leadership bonafides.

Anyone moving through an Indian airport or major metropolitan area today cannot avoid encounters with splashy India-G-20 posters and billboards. Observed one western diplomat: “This India coming-out party on the global stage feels faintly reminiscent of the Beijing Olympics in 2008.’’

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Contributor|Moneycontrol.com

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It is also important to remember that no host country of previous SCO and G-20 summits has convened as many meetings as India has. But that, to some veteran diplomats like former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, G Parthasarathy, is a “mere coincidence”.  Nonetheless, India playing host to the two summits this year has boosted its regional and international profile, expanded its diplomatic space and provided opportunities to advance its interests in a sharply polarised geopolitical landscape.

Why multilateral matter

India is deepening cooperation with the West through ‘minilaterals’ like the informal Quad leaders’ meeting in Hiroshima alongside the G7 (the US has pulled out of the proposed four-nation summit in Australia). New Delhi prefers to foreground global public goods initiatives on vaccines, infrastructure and supply chains, while quietly proceeding with the incremental operationalisation of existing security agreements. For instance, India and the three Quad partners hope to fully implement the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness throughout the Indo-Pacific region to fuse multiple intelligence sources to detect illicit activity at sea — a euphemism for keeping an eye on the vast and overactive Chinese navy.

India is among the eight invitees to the G-7 summit in Hiroshima this week. The mix of countries invited by Japan to attend the G7 summit is seen as an attempt to help efforts of countering China's assertiveness and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

“In 2023, India seeks to raise its leadership profile as a bridging power between various poles of the international system, both East and West as well as North and South… At present, India is in a strong position to work across global cleavages. As one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, India is courted by — and can potentially be a bridge to — all sides. India is poised to be one of the fastest-growing economies with the IMF forecasting it to grow at 6.1 percent in 2023 and 6.8 percent in 2024,” wrote the United States Institute of Peace in a chapter entitled India’s Pivotal Year on the Global Stage.

With India taking its anointed position as one of the biggest economies of the world, there can be little doubt that the world will have to make adjustments to adapt to this shift in power — which means multilateral diplomacy will have to do the same.

Says former Indian envoy to China and Pakistan Gautam Bambawale: “Every country is moving towards multilateralism. International bodies such as the UN, IMF, WB, even the UNSC, are not as effective as they were once. Hence countries favour multilateral arrangements. For instance, India has excellent bilateral relations with the US, Japan and Australia. Yet these countries prefer to operate through multilateral channels. They are part of the G7 and India is an invitee there.’’

As a matter of fact, even with China, which does not have good bilateral relations with India, multilateral institutions such as BRICS, SCO and the G20 provide a window to work together, he told Moneycontrol.

Of course, given the fractious nature of relations with Pakistan, even a multilateral summit is enough to spark bilateral hostilities. The council of foreign ministers of the SCO, which met in Goa recently, was marred by a slanging match between India and Pakistan. This can only be described as unfortunate. China dominates the SCO and Pakistan is a member, too. And while India has good relations with neither, the SCO does give New Delhi a place on the table in Eurasia, from where it can watch over its interests in Central Asia and participate in conversations on Afghanistan, where it is well invested, as well as engage with adversaries.

Foreign minister S Jaishankar's meeting with his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang on the sidelines of the SCO showed that such conversations are possible even with a neighbour that has intruded into eastern Ladakh, and by New Delhi’s own reckoning, has destabilised the line of actual control (LAC), making ties very fragile indeed.

The need for sharp minds

Multilateralism, however, comes at a price. Some experts point out that the wide-ranging discussions that occur on such platforms mean that the human resource inputs have to be of very high quality and the class of international negotiators well above the ordinary. Lack of requisite talent may put the country at a disadvantage when it comes to safeguarding its vital interests, much less leveraging opportunities that could come it's way.

Former Indian Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, currently a distinguished fellow at think tank Gateway House and a leading voice on multilateral diplomacy, told Moneycontrol: “While at the formal level, we have enough men to man our important global missions, the move away from classical diplomacy to areas of cooperation on complex issues like technology and economic relations etc., means we can do with more talent. Diplomacy is not just about war and peace or security issues any longer.”

He adds: “There are new, post-Cold War institutions like BRICS, G20, SCO, which call for additional talent. There are some multilateral bodies where a great deal of documentation is undertaken, but there is no clear progress. Then there are other bodies where some forward move is visible and yet some more, which have nothing to show for themselves. All of it needs to be monitored. “

In the case of India, the Modi government plans to take G20 meetings and foreign affairs to the people. No host country of previous G20 or SCO summits has convened as many meetings as India has. These have been accompanied by colourful side events in major Indian cities, both modern and ancient, showcasing India’s rich cultural heritage and its achievements.

Could that be the yardstick used to judge the success of the G20 summit coming up later in the year? Explains Bhatia: “There are three ways to judge the G20 summit here: one, see whether the summit can produce consensus; two, see whether it can produce additional documentation, and three, charter their implementation.”

Adds Parthasarathy: “G20 is undoubtedly India’s prize.’’ Unlike other experts, however, he believes that “the new multilateral institutions are here to supplement old international institutions, not replace them.”

The answer to all conjectures and analyses lies in the womb of the not-too-distant future. The pattern of global diplomacy has, however, gone through a paradigm shift and New Delhi is spotting the opportunities fast enough.