‘36% formula’: The number game behind Tejashwi’s claim Nitish won’t return as Bihar CM

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has been referring to CM Nitish Kumar as a 'puppet' of the BJP.

Rashtriya Janata Dal leader and the Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial face in Bihar appears to be on a man on a mission. His target -- to discredit former ally and incumbent CM Nitish Kumar ever since the Bihar poll campaign gained momentum. Tejashwi has been referring to Nitish as a "puppet" of the BJP, which he claims is using the JD(U) supremo's name to suit its own agenda in Bihar.

Citing his health condition -- both physical and mental -- Tejashwi has repeatedly claimed that Nitish will not return as the Chief Minister of Bihar even if the NDA emerges victorious in the Assembly elections.

Nitish, despite the narrative around him losing both his support base and the control over his party, continues to be the NDA's best bet in Bihar this election. And the attempt to discredit him and his prospects even in the event of an NDA victory appears to be aimed at causing confusion within Nitish’s most steadfast support base.

While targeting opponents is common practice ahead of any election, there is a peculiarity in Tejashwi's line of attack that is hard to miss -- painting Nitish as a victim rather than a failure.

Both NDA’s Nitish Kumar and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav's Mahagathbandhan are vying for the support of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) vote bank. While unveiling the Mahagathbandhan’s blueprint for Bihar, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav on Tuesday targeted Chief Minister Nitish Kumar by calling him a “puppet” of the NDA.

The RJD leader also accused the NDA of using the face of the chief minister. “Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already confirmed that Nitish Kumar will not become the CM of Bihar...BJP will not make Nitish Kumar the Chief Minister after the elections...The INDIA alliance has declared me as the CM face, but the NDA has not done even a single press conference to declare who will be the CM face of NDA..." he said.

Historically, the EBCs aligned with RJD’s Lalu Yadav but in recent years they have provided consistent support to Nitish Kumar.

What are EBCs?

EBCs are a diversified caste group that make up 36% (according to 23% of caste census) of the population of Bihar. When put together with the upper OBCs or upper Backward castes, they form the category of Backward Castes, which make up a combined total of 63% of the state’s population. These include traditional artisans, labour or service communities such as the Hajams (barbers), Sahanis, Nishads, and Kevats (fishermen communities), Lohars (blacksmiths), Telis (oil traders), and Nonias (salt-makers).

Bihar’s EBC politics

The EBCs’ role in the state’s landscape goes back to the Mungeri Lal Commission which was established in 1971 by Karpoori Thakur. The panel created a separate EBC category within the broader OBC group. Thakur implemented a 26% reservation, including 10% for EBCs.  During his regime, Lalu included EBCs in his Muslim-Yadav coalition to counter the upper-caste dominance.

Nitish Kumar granted 18 per cent reservation for EBCs in jobs and education when he assumed office in 2005.  He also introduced welfare measures such as bicycles for schoolgirls and scholarships for Mahadalits. It helped the NDA secure 206 of 243 seats in the 2010 elections.

In 2023, during the rule of the short-lived JDU-RJD alliance, the state assembly passed Bills raising the collective reservation for SC, ST, OBC, and EBC from 50% to 65. The EBC quota was raised to 25%.

However, in June 2024, the Patna High Court rejected the quotas as unconstitutional.

Nitish vs Tejashwi

With a sizable proportion of the EBCs having backed Nitish, the RJD has been making attempts to chip away into this loyal JD(U) support base. Tejashwi Yadav recently declared Vikassheel Insaan Party chief Mukesh Sahani, popularly known as the “Son of Mallah", as one of the deputy chief ministers if the alliance comes to power. This move is seen as a strategic effort to woo EBC voters.

Sahani reportedly has influence among the EBCs, particularly the Nishad community. Within the EBC group, the Nishad community accounts for 9.6% of the state’s total population. Pitching Sahani may prove decisive in areas such as Muzaffarpur, East Champaran, Madhubani, Khagaria and Vaishali, among others.

Also, the Mahagathbandhan manifesto, which was released on Tuesday, promised that reservation for Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) in panchayats and urban local bodies will be increased from 20 per cent to 30 per cent. The INDIA bloc alliance also promised that the Extremely Backward Classes Atrocities Prevention Act will be enacted if it comes to power.

Meanwhile, the NDA's strategy has involved Prime Minister Modi's rally in Samastipur where he invoked the legacy of Karpoori Thakur.  In the JD(U) list of 101, more than half (59) are EBCs and OBCs.  Even without a formal manifesto, the state government has introduced 20 welfare schemes since July 2025, specifically aimed at the EBCs and women.

Home Minister Amit Shah also kick-started his campaign in Darbhanga by invoking Thakur. Shah alleged that the INDIA bloc wants to snatch the title of 'Jannayak' of Thakur.

"Modi ji bestowed Bharat Ratna upon Jannayak Karpoori Thakur. Now, they (opposition) want to take away the title from Karpoori ji. We will not let this happen. People have seen the real face of Congress that had prevented Babu Jagjivan Ram from becoming the PM," he said.