Technical View: Follow-up buying crucial for Nifty rally, but strong bears, $100+ oil and elevated VIX cap upside; 54,700 key level for Bank Nifty
Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 23,000–24,000 range in the short term, as a decisive close on either side could provide a firm direction to the index, with immediate resistance at 23,500.
Trading Plan: Will West Asia Tensions push Nifty 50 below 23,000, Bank Nifty toward 53,000?
The Bank Nifty needs to defend 53,500 for a move toward 54,700 (50% Fibonacci level), but a decisive fall below it could open the door for 53,000.
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The market may continue to consolidate with a negative bias amid the West Asia tensions. Below are some short-term trading ideas to consider.
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According to experts, if the Nifty fails to take support at the psychological level of 23,000, a fall toward 22,700 cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, 23,300–23,500 can act as immediate resistance.
Chartist Talk: Sudeep Shah flags deeper correction risk as Nifty breaks 61.8% Fibonacci level; suggests two stocks
Given the current chart structure and weak momentum setup, any near term rebound, if it occurs, is likely to attract fresh selling interest, especially near resistance zones, said Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
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Markets don't move in straight lines. They bounce on the way down and pull back on the way up. That's exactly what catches traders out, confusing a retracement for a reversal.
Technical View: Nifty logs biggest weekly fall since June 2022, nears death cross; Iran war fears push bears to target 22,700; Bank Nifty eyes 53,000
The fear gauge India VIX remained at elevated levels, rising 13.9 percent during the week to 22.64 (the highest closing level since May 2024), in addition to a 45 percent surge in the previous week, signalling ballooning risk for bulls.
Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 decisively breach 23,500, Bank Nifty slip below 54,500 as Strait of Hormuz crisis drives oil above $100?
Bearish momentum indicators, along with the continuation of the lower high–lower low structure and the VIX sustaining above 21, signal further weakness. Experts expect the benchmark Nifty 50 to breach the 23,500 support and slide toward 23,000 in the upcoming sessions.
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The market is expected to continue to face risk-off sentiment amid geopolitical tensions. Below are some short-term trading ideas to consider.
Trade setup for March 13: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell as oil hits $100 amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Bears seem to be keeping tight control over the market in the upcoming sessions, possibly pushing the Nifty 50 below the immediate support of 23,500 and signalling a major risk for the 23,200–23,000 zone. Notably, 23,000 has the maximum Put open interest.
Technical View: Selling may intensify if Nifty breaks 23,500 amid oil price volatility; Bank Nifty bears eye 54,200 as VIX stays above 21
The weekly options data suggested that 23,500 is expected to be immediate support for the Nifty 50, as below it 23,000 is likely to be a major support, both of which have maximum Put open interest. However, 23,700 and 24,000 are expected to be hurdles.
Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty defend Monday's low amid US-Iran tensions and elevated VIX?
If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks 23,700, Monday's low, a fall toward 23,500–23,400 can't be ruled out. However, a convincing move above 24,300 can drive the index toward 24,500–24,700.
Trade Spotlight: How should you trade Karnataka Bank, National Aluminium Company, Bajaj Finserv, Blue Star, Astral, and others on March 12?
The market may remain range-bound with a negative bias until it closes above Monday's bearish gap. Below are some short-term trading ideas to consider.
Trade setup for March 12: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell as traders track US–Iran tensions
Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, while the narrowing gap between the 50- and 200-day EMAs increased the possibility of a move toward a death cross, signalling bears having the upper hand.
Technical View: Nifty’s 23,700 support at risk amid US–Iran tensions; Bank Nifty falls over 2%, 55,300 crucial as VIX jumps 11%
The weekly options data indicated that 23,500, which has the maximum Put open interest, is expected to act as support for the Nifty 50, while resistance is placed in the 24,000–24,300 range, which holds the maximum Call open interest.
Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty see a follow-up rally with oil below $100 a barrel?
According to experts, a follow-up rally is needed in the upcoming sessions toward the immediate hurdle of 24,400–24,500, followed by the 24,850–25,000 zone. Until then, consolidation with range-bound trading may be seen, with immediate support at 24,000, followed by 23,700,
Trade Spotlight: How should you trade Biocon, BlueStone Jewellery, Hero MotoCorp, Emcure, Aurobindo Pharma, and others on March 11?
The market is expected to see consolidation with range-bound trading in the next few sessions. Below are some short-term trading ideas to consider.
Trade setup for March 11: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell as oil stays below $100 on Iran war de-escalation hopes
Strong follow-up buying interest is required for a further Nifty uptrend. If that comes true in the next few sessions, the 24,300–24,500 zone is expected to act as an immediate crucial resistance for the Nifty, followed by 24,700. On the downside, the immediate key support is placed at 24,000, according to experts.
Technical View: Strong follow-up buying needed to push Nifty above 24,500; oil correction cools VIX, 57,500 key for Bank Nifty
The weekly options data suggests that 24,000 is expected to act as support for the Nifty 50, with resistance at the 24,300–24,500 zone in the short term.
Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty stage a bounce after Trump's Iran war comments and oil price correction?
Momentum indicators have entered the oversold zone and a bullish divergence has been seen on the hourly charts.
Trade Spotlight: How should you trade Avenue Supermarts, Glenmark, Bharat Dynamics, Torrent Pharma, Cummins India, and others on March 10?
The market is expected to rebound after the severe correction, but the sustainability of the uptrend will be the key factor to watch. Below are some short-term trading ideas to consider.
Trade setup for March 10: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell amid Middle East turmoil and volatile oil prices
The overall structure looks weak as the bearish chart pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, while the VIX soared to a 21-month high. Momentum indicators being in the oversold zone signal the possibility of some bounce, but the sustainability of the upside bounce is the key to watch.
Technical View: Nifty may see a pullback after sharp correction, but sustainability key amid oil surge, VIX spike; Bank Nifty hits 5-month low with 3% loss
The weekly options data suggested that 23,500 is expected to be key support for the Nifty 50, while resistance is placed at 24,500, which is likely to be the trading range in the short term.
Chartist Talk: Nifty risks fall to 23,000 on weekly close below 24,300; Rahul Ghose bullish on Sun Pharma, ABB
According to Rahul Ghose, a close below 24,300 would turn this market into a sell on rallies, from buy on dips from a trading perspective. Only a substantial visible improvement in the geopolitical situation would change this outlook.
Trading Plan: Will bears drag Nifty 50 below 24,000, Bank Nifty decisively below 200 DEMA as oil surpasses $110 per barrel amid Middle East tensions?
According to experts, the Nifty 50 is expected to decisively break 24,300 (the previous week's support) and move down toward 24,000, while resistance is placed at 24,500–24,700.
