Technical View: Strong follow-up buying needed to push Nifty above 24,500; oil correction cools VIX, 57,500 key for Bank Nifty

Nifty outlook for March 11

• India VIX falls sharply by 19.08% to 18.9, signalling some comfort for bulls
• Weekly options data suggests 24,000-24,500 range for Nifty 50 in short term
• Stronger bullish view would emerge only after Bank Nifty reclaims its 50-day MA

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The Nifty 50 bounced back and snapped a two-day sharp losing streak on March 10, soaring nearly 1 percent after a gap-up opening and entering the long bearish gap of the previous session. The rebound was on expected lines after oversold indications from momentum and technical indicators. The steep fall in oil prices, which traded below the $100-a-barrel mark, and the sharp downtrend in India VIX lifted market sentiment.

However, consistent follow-up buying interest is needed for market stability from here, as traders closely watch developments in the Middle East and oil prices remain at elevated levels despite the sharp correction. Overall, consolidation with range-bound trading may continue for a few sessions before confirmation of the next trend.

The Nifty 50 needs to close strongly above 24,350–24,500 (which coincides with the upward-sloping resistance trendline that earlier acted as a support line, and above the high of the previous day's bearish gap) for a move toward the 24,850–25,000 zone. However, 24,050–24,000 can act as immediate support, followed by 23,700 as a crucial support area, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened more than 250 points higher and remained in positive territory throughout the session. The index rallied 234 points (0.97 percent) to 24,262 and formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long lower shadow, resembling a Doji-like candlestick pattern (not a classical one) on the daily charts.

The formation of this candlestick pattern is not a bullish sign ahead and indicates the presence of strong overhead resistance around the 24,400–24,500 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

According to him, the short-term trend of the Nifty is positive, but the overall medium-term trend remains choppy with a weak bias. “There is a higher possibility of the market coming down from near the crucial hurdle in the next few sessions,” he said.

The daily RSI also saw a mild rebound to 34.22, reflecting stabilisation in momentum after recent volatility, but it still remains below the reference line. The histogram bar signals fading bearish momentum, though the MACD remains below the reference and zero lines.

“24,350–24,450 remains a key resistance band. A decisive close above 24,450 would be important to confirm further upside momentum and could open room for the index to move toward the 24,800–24,900 zone in the near term,” said Gaurav Udani, Founder of Thincredblu Securities.

Meanwhile, the fear gauge India VIX fell sharply by 19.08 percent to 18.9, signalling some comfort for bulls. However, it needs to extend its downtrend in the upcoming sessions to bring bulls back into a stronger comfort zone.

The weekly options data suggests that 24,000 is expected to act as support for the Nifty 50, with resistance at the 24,300–24,500 zone in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,500 and 24,300 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,000, 24,300, and 24,800 strikes. Meanwhile, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 24,200 and 24,300 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,200, 24,300, and 24,000 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty rebounded sharply and outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 after breaking below its rising trendline and slipping under the 200-day moving average, as the RSI had entered the oversold zone, indicating a possible technical pullback.

The banking index surged 931 points (1.66 percent) to 56,951, forming a bullish candle on the daily timeframe after a gap-up opening. It surpassed the 57,000 zone by touching an intraday high of 57,097.

The RSI rose to 33.24 but remains well below the signal line. The MACD continues to maintain a sell signal with further red bar expansion in the histogram, while the Stochastic RSI remains range-bound in the lower zone.

According to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, in the short term, the banking index is expected to test its 200-day moving average resistance placed near 57,500. Sustaining above this level could lead to further recovery.

“A stronger bullish view would emerge only after the index reclaims its 50-day moving average. Until then, a cautious stance is advisable, with support at 56,200 and resistance at 57,500,” he said.