Technical View: Selling may intensify if Nifty breaks 23,500 amid oil price volatility; Bank Nifty bears eye 54,200 as VIX stays above 21

Nifty outlook for March 13

• Next support for Nifty 50 placed at 23,500, followed by 23,200 being crucial support
• On higher side, 23,800–24,000 can be the immediate hurdle zone
• India VIX remains above 21 zone, increasing concerns for bulls

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The Nifty 50 broke Monday's low and fell nearly 1 percent, extending selling pressure for the second consecutive session on March 12, as the lower high–lower low structure remains intact with further weakening momentum indicators and moving averages trending down, following volatility in oil prices.

Brent crude oil prices hit $100 a barrel again amid fresh attacks on oil-shipping vessels, intensifying concerns over inflation and gas supply constraints, sustaining risk-off sentiment and ongoing FII outflows.

Now the next support for the Nifty 50 is placed at 23,500, which coincides with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement (of the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high). If the index breaks the said support, a fall toward 23,200 can't be ruled out (which is the higher end of the bullish gap of April 15, 2025). Below it, 22,700 can act as a support. However, on the higher side, 23,800–24,000 can be the immediate hurdle zone, experts said.

The Nifty 50 opened nearly 200 points down at 23,675 and touched an intraday low of 23,556. The index remained under bears' control for the entire session and closed at 23,639, down 228 points (0.95 percent), forming a small-bodied bearish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, signalling the formation of a high-wave type candle pattern at the swing lows.

From an indicator perspective, moving averages and momentum-based indicators continue to suggest a bearish undertone, indicating that the short-term trend remains under pressure unless the index manages to reclaim key resistance levels convincingly.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the underlying trend of the Nifty remains weak.

"But the overall chart pattern indicates a possibility of lower bottom formation around the supports of 23,500–23,400 in the short term. A sustainable move above the hurdle of 23,850 could confirm a reversal on the upside," he said.

The weekly options data suggested that 23,500 is expected to be immediate support for the Nifty 50, as below it 23,000 is likely to be a major support, both of which have maximum Put open interest. However, 23,700 and 24,000 are expected to be hurdles.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, also known as the fear index, remained above the 21 zone, rising 2.16 percent to the 21.52 level, increasing concerns for bulls.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also remained in a bear trap, falling 635 points (1.14 percent) to 55,101 and forming a small-bodied bullish candle with long upper and lower minor shadows on the daily timeframe, indicating pressure at higher levels with some buying interest at lower levels.

The banking index closed below the crucial support level of 55,300, indicating strong bearish control over the index. Technically, all key moving averages and momentum indicators continue to signal a bearish bias, suggesting a downward move toward the 54,500–54,200 levels.

"The prevailing panic in the market and Bank Nifty’s high beta nature continue to keep overall sentiment weak, though on the hourly chart, a positive divergence in the oversold zone suggests the possibility of a short-term recovery or rebound," Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said.

According to him, if the index extends its decline, the next key support is placed around 54,500, while on the upside, any pullback or recovery is likely to face resistance near the 56,200 level.