Trading Plan: Will bears drag Nifty 50 below 24,000, Bank Nifty decisively below 200 DEMA as oil surpasses $110 per barrel amid Middle East tensions?

Nifty Trading Plan for March 9

• Escalating geopolitical tensions in Middle East lift oil prices above $110 a barrel
• Nifty 50 to decisively break 24,300 and move down toward 24,000
• Bank Nifty likely to breach 57,400 (200-day EMA) and fall below 57,000

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The bears are expected to tighten their control over the market, given the weakness in momentum indicators and the benchmark index trading decisively below long-term moving averages, following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that lifted Brent crude oil prices above $110 a barrel. According to experts, the Nifty 50 is expected to decisively break 24,300 (the previous week's support) and move down toward 24,000-23,800, while resistance is placed at 24,500–24,700. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to breach the last moving average support of 57,400 (200-day EMA) and fall below 57,000 in the upcoming sessions, with 58,000 being the immediate hurdle on the higher side.

On March 6, the Nifty 50 tumbled 315 points (1.27 percent) to 24,450, while the Bank Nifty plummeted 1,273 points (2.15 percent) to 57,783, with market breadth favouring bears. About 1,804 shares saw selling pressure against 1,136 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has witnessed a vertical decline, which has distorted the near-term price structure. On the weekly chart, an upward-sloping trendline connecting the August 2025 swing lows and February 2026 swing lows has been breached, confirming a “Head and Shoulders” pattern breakdown. Although prices managed to hold the long-term support of the 89-WEMA near 24,300, which coincides with the August 2025 swing lows, the RSI on both the daily and weekly charts has started trending lower, indicating rising negative momentum.

A decisive break below 24,300 could trigger further downside, potentially pushing the index towards 24,000 and 23,500, which coincide with the 50 percent and 61.8 percent retracement levels of the rally seen from 21,700 (April last year). On the upside, after such a steep fall, overhead resistance is visible at multiple levels. In the near term, 24,700–24,850 is likely to act as immediate resistance, followed by the weekly bearish gap zone of 25,000–25,100, which seems difficult to cross in the near term unless some positive outcome emerges.

Given the current backdrop, markets are likely to remain cautious, with volatility on the higher side, and aggressive positions should be avoided. It will also be important to closely monitor global developments, as they are likely to dictate the near-term direction of the markets.

Key Resistance: 24,700, 24,850

Key Support: 24,300, 24,000

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a bounce around 24,700, with a stop-loss of 24,850, targeting 24,200–24,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty remained highly volatile amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, along with a spike in crude oil prices. The index registered a weekly loss of 728 points. India VIX surged 45 percent last week to 19.9, reflecting heightened market nervousness.

On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a long-legged spinning top, signalling indecision as the index hovers near the crucial horizontal support and the bullish gap zone of 24,164–24,379, formed on May 12, 2025. Technically, the index continues to trade within a falling channel and remains below its 200-day SMA, placed at 25,344, indicating a cautious undertone.

For bulls to regain control, a decisive move above the bearish gap zone of 25,000–25,141 formed on March 2, 2026, is essential. On the downside, immediate supports are placed at 24,300 and 24,000, and a sustained break below 24,000 could trigger a deeper correction. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is trending downward and remains below its reference line, reinforcing the prevailing negative bias in the near term.

Key Resistance: 24,600, 24,750

Key Support: 24,300, 24,100

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 24,550 with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 24,300–24,100.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Over the past five weeks, Nifty has corrected more than 7 percent and has now closed below the key weekly swing low near 24,571.75, finishing around 24,450. This breakdown shifts the broader structure into a corrective phase and confirms that supply is dominating the tape. A weekly reclaim above the broken swing level is essential for bulls to regain control and re-establish a meaningful bounce trajectory. Until that happens, the market remains firmly in a sell-on-rallies regime, reflecting aggressive short positioning by bears.

The next major downside magnet lies near the unmitigated weekly demand zone, where price could gravitate if selling pressure persists. Moving averages on both the daily and weekly time frames have rolled over and are bearishly stacked, acting as overhead supply on recovery attempts. Reversing this alignment will require sustained strength and time. For now, rallies into overhead supply zones are likely to attract renewed selling rather than trend continuation higher.

Key Resistance: 24,565, 24,810

Key Support: 24,200, 23,900

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rallies towards 24,565 with a stop-loss above 24,650 for a target of 24,200–23,900.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty registered a sharp weekly loss of 2,746 points, significantly underperforming the broader market. The underperformance against Nifty comes amid rising crude prices, which tend to stoke inflationary pressures for oil-importing economies like India. Higher inflation could delay potential RBI rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated and weighing on banking stocks.

On the weekly chart, the banking index has formed a long bearish candle with an extended upper shadow, indicating strong selling pressure at higher levels. The formation of a lower high–lower low structure compared to the previous week further highlights prevailing weakness in the near-term trend.

Technically, a decisive move above 58,000 could trigger fresh buying interest, potentially pushing the index toward the 58,400–59,000 zone. Conversely, a break below 57,500 may accelerate selling pressure, dragging the index toward the 57,150–56,800 levels. The weekly RSI remains in negative territory, below its reference line, reinforcing the cautious outlook.

Key Resistance: 58,000, 58,250

Key Support: 57,500, 57,350

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 57,900 with a stop-loss of 58,100, targeting 57,500–57,350.

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

While the broader market witnessed a broad-based sell-off, the banking space faced relatively sharper pressure, particularly on the last day of the week, with Nifty Bank ending the week with a sharp decline of 4.54 percent. Technically, the index has broken below key short-term supports and moving averages and is now hovering near a crucial long-term support zone around 57,500, coinciding with the 200-DSMA.

Considering the prevailing momentum and the RSI slipping below the 40 mark, further downside cannot be ruled out in the near term. Hence, until clear signs of reversal emerge, aggressive long positions should be avoided. Immediate support is placed in the 57,500–56,800 zone, while 58,300–58,500 is likely to act as resistance, where any minor bounce could be used to lighten long positions.

Key Resistance: 58,300, 58,500

Key Support: 57,500, 56,800

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a bounce around 58,300, with a stop-loss of 59,000, targeting 57,000–56,700.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty broke out of a tight three-week inside-bar consolidation with a sharp decline last week, signalling decisive distribution after prolonged compression. The fall was driven largely by aggressive selling in private sector banks, with additional profit booking in PSU names accelerating downside momentum. Price has now closed right at the weekly swing low near 57,783, a level that marks the immediate structural pivot for the week ahead.

A sustained break below this support would confirm the continuation of the bearish swing sequence and could trigger fresh liquidation toward the next weekly swing base. If selling pressure persists, the index may gravitate toward the deeper unmitigated demand zone, which remains a magnet during corrective phases.

On the upside, recovery attempts are likely to encounter stiff supply within the first overhead resistance band, followed by a broader supply cluster higher up. Moving averages across time frames have rolled over, while momentum indicators are trending lower, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Key Resistance: 58,250, 58,750

Key Support: 57,157, 56,230

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on rallies towards 58,250 with a stop-loss above 58,500 for a target of 57,157–56,230.