Trading Plan: Will West Asia Tensions push Nifty 50 below 23,000, Bank Nifty toward 53,000?

Nifty Trading Plan for March 16

• Bears may target 23,000–22,900 zone on Nifty in upcoming sessions
• Holding above 23,000 can open door for 23,300–23,500 range
• Bank Nifty needs to defend 53,500 for move toward 54,700, but decisive fall below it could open door for 53,000

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The bears are likely to maintain their presence given the deepening tensions in West Asia, with the US–Israel and Iran conflict entering its third week, US defence forces hitting military sites near Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, and Donald Trump threatening further strikes at the same location. According to experts, bears may target the 23,000–22,900 zone on the Nifty 50 in upcoming sessions; below this, 22,700 cannot be ruled out. However, above it, the 23,300–23,500 range can act as a hurdle. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend 53,500 for a move toward 54,700 (50% Fibonacci level), but a decisive fall below it could open the door for 53,000.

On March 13, the Nifty 50 fell 488 points (2.06 percent) to 23,151, while the Bank Nifty tumbled 1,343 points (2.44 percent) to 53,758, with market breadth favouring bears. About 2,551 shares were under pressure compared to 420 rising shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

From a technical standpoint, the benchmark index has declined sharply after failing to sustain above the ‘golden ratio’ 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Continued weakness below this threshold could intensify selling pressure, potentially dragging the index toward the next potential support zone of 22,950–22,900 in the near term.

The Indian market has slipped to a 10-month low, reflecting a fragile chart structure and strengthening bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the fear index, India VIX, has surged over 65 percent this month to the 22 zone, signalling heightened volatility and investor caution.

Additionally, the 14-day RSI has entered the oversold zone, indicating the possibility of short-term stabilization or a technical rebound. However, broader market sentiment remains fragile amid geopolitical uncertainties and heightened volatility. Investors should avoid premature conclusions about a trend reversal and instead wait for a clear confirmation signal on the technical charts before adopting a more constructive outlook.

On the upside, the index is likely to encounter a series of resistance levels, primarily due to the presence of an unfilled bearish gap and key retracement zones. These resistance levels are broadly positioned in the 23,500–24,000 range from an intermediate-term perspective, which could cap any immediate recovery attempts.

Key Resistance: 23,500, 24,000

Key Support: 22,950, 22,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 22,900, with a stop-loss of 22,700, and book profit near 23,500–23,700.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Nifty index concluded a turbulent trading week with a 1,299-point loss on Friday. Market sentiment has been notably impacted by escalating unrest in the Gulf region, coupled with strikes on oil infrastructure, resulting in a sharp surge in crude oil prices. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, reached a peak of 24.49, highlighting heightened investor anxiety.

On the weekly chart, the Nifty exhibited a prominent bearish candle, establishing a lower high and low compared to the preceding week. It also closed below last week’s low, signaling continued market weakness. Last week’s close breached the crucial “up-sloping trendline” support, which had held for the past five years, now positioned at the 24,400 mark.

Looking ahead, immediate support levels are identified at 22,900 and 22,800. A sustained breach below these levels could pave the way for a deeper correction toward 22,000. Conversely, resistance zones are found between 23,800 and 24,400.

Additionally, the daily, weekly, and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators are all trending downward and remain beneath their respective reference lines, further reinforcing a negative bias in the near term. Investors should remain cautious as market dynamics continue to evolve.

Key Resistance: 23,800, 24,400

Key Support: 22,900, 22,800

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty has filled the weekly gap formed in April 2025 and closed inside the gap band between 23,207 and 22,923.9, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact after the recent breakdown. The lack of a meaningful bounce on the initial touch suggests the market may attempt to fully fill the gap, bringing the lower boundary near 22,923.9 into focus as the next immediate demand zone.

Over the last five weeks, the index has declined more than 11 percent, with four of those weeks ending in the red, reflecting persistent selling pressure and broad market weakness. However, such an extended decline has pushed momentum indicators into deeply oversold territory. Daily and weekly RSI are now oversold, while price is stretched significantly below the 20-day EMA, highlighting an overstretched structure. These conditions typically precede a relief rally driven by short covering.

If the lower gap boundary holds, the market could witness a technical bounce toward overhead supply zones. Despite this potential rebound, the broader structure remains corrective, and rallies into resistance are likely to face selling pressure unless strong follow-through buying emerges.

Key Resistance: 23,300, 23,550

Key Support: 22,924, 22,695

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on gap fill at 22,924, with stop-loss below 22,875 for a target of 23,100.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The banking index ended the week with a sharp decline of nearly 7%. From a technical standpoint, the sharp correction has brought the index close to its August lows around the 53,500–53,600 zone, a crucial support area. More importantly, the index ended the week below the 89-week EMA for the first time in nearly four years, a development that warrants caution for market participants.

On higher-timeframe charts as well, the pressure is evident. The index has retested the 20 DEMA on the monthly chart and has already corrected more than 11%, even as we are only midway through the March series. Adding to the weakness, the PSU banking index, which had been a stellar outperformer in recent months, has also witnessed a sharp correction of over 13%.

Key Resistance: 54,500, 55,000

Key Support: 53,500, 53,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 53,300 for a potential target of 54,500–55,000, with a stop-loss of 52,900.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty is nearing a crucial “multi-month support zone” at the 53,600–53,500 levels. A breach of this support could trigger further weakness in the index.

Analyzing the weekly chart reveals the formation of a long bearish candle, complete with an upper shadow, indicating strong selling pressure at elevated levels. The index is also exhibiting a lower high–lower low structure relative to the previous week, highlighting prevailing weakness in the near-term trend.

From a technical standpoint, a decisive move above 55,000 could initiate a short-term relief rally, with potential upward momentum pushing the index toward the 56,000–57,000 range. Conversely, if the index breaks below 53,500, it may lead to intensified selling pressure, dragging it further toward 52,500–51,300.

Additionally, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, positioned below its reference line, reinforcing a cautious outlook for the index in the coming weeks.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 56,000, 57,000

Key Support: 53,500, 52,500, 51,300

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty has slipped deeper into a weak structural zone, closing in the middle of a double weekly swing support band between 54,226 and 53,561. The index continues to show no clear signs of exhaustion, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant unless a strong external catalyst triggers a reversal. A decisive break below the lower boundary of this swing support would confirm continuation of the downtrend and expose the index to the next major downside magnet.

In such a scenario, price is likely to gravitate toward the unfilled daily gap zone, which becomes the next significant demand pocket where buyers may attempt to stabilise the market. Over the past three weeks, Bank Nifty has corrected more than 12 percent, reflecting extreme pessimism and aggressive distribution across banking stocks.

Despite the stretched conditions, momentum indicators remain weak and moving averages continue to slope downward, reinforcing bearish control. Only a strong rejection from the lower swing support could trigger a relief bounce; otherwise, breakdown continuation remains the dominant probability.

Key Resistance: 54,226, 54,800

Key Support: 53,561, 51,863

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on rejections at 53,561, with a stop-loss below 53,300 for a target of 54,200.