Technical View: Nifty logs biggest weekly fall since June 2022, nears death cross; Iran war fears push bears to target 22,700; Bank Nifty eyes 53,000

Nifty outlook for March 16

• Immediate support for Nifty 50 seen at 23,000, followed by 22,700 being crucial support
• Decisive breakdown of both supports can open door for a 1,000-point fall thereafter
• 23,500–23,800 can act as the immediate resistance zone

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Bloodbath continued for the third consecutive session as the benchmark Nifty 50 tumbled over 2 percent on March 13 and recorded its biggest weekly loss since June 2022. Deepening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept Brent crude oil prices around $100 a barrel, ultimately leading to macroeconomic shocks, along with margin-related technical pressures. Momentum and technical indicators deteriorated further, increasing the possibility of the emergence of a death cross as the 50-day EMA moved closer to the 200-day EMA. The former moving average falling below the latter moving average is known as a death cross, a signal of strong bearish strength.

The immediate support for the Nifty 50 is placed at 23,000-22,900, below which 22,700 (the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high) is the level to watch. However, 23,500–23,800 can act as the immediate resistance zone, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 saw another gap-down opening, falling over 175 points at the start. The index maintained weakness as the day progressed and finished Friday's session at 23,151 (the lowest closing level since April 11, 2025), down 488 points (2.06 percent, the biggest single-day fall since April 3, 2025). In fact, the index partially filled the long bullish gap (22,200–22,900) created on April 15, 2025, and has erased all the gains of FY26.

The index formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts and made a new swing low of the current year at 23,112. Further, the weakness is significant as Nifty closed below its 100-week EMA for the first time since June 2022 and slipped below the 20-month EMA for the first time since February 2025.

Momentum indicators remain strongly negative, with the RSI falling below 25, indicating sharp bearish momentum, while a rising ADX highlights strengthening downside trend pressure.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, though Nifty is placed near support levels, there is still no confirmation of any bottom reversal pattern forming. This is not a good sign, and hence the underlying trend of the market remains sharply down.

For the week, the Nifty 50 plunged 5.31 percent, the biggest weekly loss since June 2022, and formed a long red candle with an upper shadow on the weekly timeframe, indicating major selling pressure at higher levels.

"There is a higher possibility of Nifty showing a minor pullback from near the lows of around 22,900 next week. If it fails to do so, then one may expect more weakness down to the 22,500–22,000 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,500," Nagaraj said.

Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, also agreed with Nagaraj. Any sustainable move below the 23,000–22,950 zone could result in Nifty extending its weakness towards 22,750, followed by 22,500 in the short term.

Weekly options data indicated that 23,000 and 22,500 are expected to be the next support levels, which hold maximum Put open interest. Meanwhile, resistance is placed at 23,500 and 23,600, where the maximum Call open interest is observed.

Meanwhile, the fear gauge India VIX remained at elevated levels, rising 13.9 percent during the week to 22.64 (the highest closing level since May 2024), in addition to a 45 percent surge in the previous week, signalling ballooning risk for bulls. It was up 5.24 percent on Friday.

Bank Nifty

The banking index consistently underperformed the benchmark index Nifty 50, sinking 1,343 points (2.44 percent) to 53,758, the lowest closing level since September 2, 2025. For the week, the index plunged 6.97 percent (the biggest weekly loss since May 18, 2020), in addition to a 4.5 percent correction in the previous week.

The Bank Nifty formed a long bearish candlestick on both the daily and weekly charts, reflecting strong selling pressure. The RSI has entered the oversold zone.

"From a technical perspective, this may lead to a short-term rebound or recovery. However, such a move should be treated only as a pullback rather than a signal of a trend reversal. Hence, a cautious approach is advisable at current levels," Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said.

The immediate support is placed at 53,500, followed by 53,000 as the crucial support, while resistance is seen near 55,000, he added.