Technical View: Nifty may see a pullback after sharp correction, but sustainability key amid oil surge, VIX spike; Bank Nifty hits 5-month low with 3% loss

Nifty outlook for March 10

• Nifty likely to be in 23,500-24,500 range in short term
• India VIX soars 17.52% to 23.36, the highest closing level since June 4, 2024
• Brent Crude Oil jumps nearly $120 a barrel
• Experts advise sell on rally strategy

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The market witnessed a bloodbath on March 9, with the Nifty 50 falling over 1.7 percent—the biggest single-day fall since Budget Day—after a big gap-down opening, as raging Middle East tensions pushed oil prices to near $120 a barrel and the India VIX to a 21-month high. However, the market closed off the day's low. This marked a pathetic start to the week, with the index decisively breaking the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level (24,055—from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high) intraday, but it managed to close just below it due to some short-covering towards the end.

According to experts, the Nifty 50 index may attempt a bounce back after the severe correction and target 24,300 in the upcoming sessions, considering that momentum indicators have reached oversold zones. However, the sustainability of this upside bounce is key to watch, as the broader trend remains weak, with the index decisively breaking the crucial 24,300 support and trading 4.7 percent below its 200-day EMA (25,212), along with advice to adopt a sell-on-rally strategy. On the lower side, Monday's low of 23,700 is the immediate crucial support to watch.

The Nifty 50 started the day with a 582-point loss at 23,868 and fell to 23,698 (down over 3 percent compared to the previous close) in the morning. The index remained rangebound and showed some smart recovery in the last hour of trade before closing at 24,028 (the lowest closing level since May 9, 2025), down 422 points (1.73 percent—the biggest single-day loss since February 1).

The benchmark index formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily charts after a significant gap-down opening, indicating a sharp downtrend with some upside recovery.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the overall structure of the market remains weak, and the bearish chart pattern of lower tops and bottoms remains intact on the daily and weekly charts.

The momentum indicators reached the oversold zone, with the RSI falling to 28.89. The MACD maintained a bearish crossover and reached its lowest level since March 2025, with further expansion in the red histogram.

"Having formed a new lower low around 23,700 on Monday, there is a higher probability of a minor pullback in the short term towards the 24,200–24,300 levels for a sell-on-rise opportunity," Nagaraj said.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, soared 17.52 percent to 23.36, the highest closing level since June 4, 2024, in addition to a 45 percent rally in the previous week, signalling major risk for bulls.

The weekly options data suggested that 23,500 is expected to be key support for the Nifty 50, while resistance is placed at 24,500, which is likely to be the trading range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,500 strike, followed by the 24,800 and 24,700 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 24,000, 24,500, and 24,200 strikes. On the Put side, the 23,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 23,800 and 23,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 23,700, 23,800, and 23,750 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The banking index saw significant underperformance compared to the benchmark Nifty 50, falling 1,763 points (3.05 percent) to 56,020, the lowest closing level since October 8, 2025, after a 1,662-point gap-down opening.

The Bank Nifty slipped to an intraday low of 55,274, after which it staged a recovery of more than 700 points and formed a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow and minor upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels.

Notably, the index has fallen below its 200-day EMA (57,419) for the first time since April 2025, signalling a shift in the medium-term trend. The daily RSI stood at 24.88, the lowest reading since January 2025.

"Going forward, the 55,600–55,500 zone will act as the immediate support. A sustained break below 55,500 may extend the decline towards 54,900, followed by 54,400," Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said.

On the upside, the 56,500–56,600 band will remain the crucial resistance zone, and only a breakout above this level may trigger a meaningful recovery, he added.