Monsoon starts with deficit in 2023, but situation not alarming yet

Experts remain hopeful of a recovery if rains pick up pace in the month of July.

The onset of monsoon in India has been delayed by a week. This holds special significance in view of the possible occurrence of El Nino this year.

However, India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet weather team have both projected a pick-up in rains over the second half of June 2023, with the advancement of monsoon in western and central parts of India. The predictions of normal rainfall for the year too have been promising.

With this, experts remain hopeful of a recovery if rains pick up pace in July.

“If the rainfall lands a week or even two weeks later, we have nothing to worry about. There will be impact on paddy production which will possibly be delayed, especially in some Northeastern areas which depend on rain for sowing. But our food bowls including Punjab and Haryana have irrigation processes available. It will impact groundwater levels but paddy sowing need not be delayed,” says Avinash Kishore, senior research fellow at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Historical track record of Indian monsoons bouncing back despite a weak start

The months of July and August cumulatively account for two-thirds of the monsoon received in India during a year.

Over the past 20 years, there have been 10 instances when the kickstart to monsoon was weak, with the month of June receiving rainfall below its Long Period Average (LPAs). However, in seven of these instances, the monsoon season was normal with good recovery in rainfall during the months of July and August, a Nomura report by Research analysts Mihir P Shah and Anshuman Singh has noted.

On the possibility of occurrence of El Nino in 2023, the Normura report has also analysed that over the past 20 years (2002-22), there have been six instances of El Nino, of which three instances there was below-normal rainfall in India.

A QuantEco report has analysed the possible best and worst-case scenarios for El Nino development this year.

“Best-case scenario for India would either be a weak El Nino gaining strength late in the season and/or a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) countering its impact July 23 onwards. A worst-case scenario would be of a strong El Nino developing as early as July with IOD being insufficiently strong to counter it,” the report says.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a more local weather phenomenon, that can arrest (if not counter) the impact of El Nino on India.

Sowing delayed but situation not alarming yet

As of June 9, as per a Barclays report, the area sown under kharif crops this year was 61.8 percent of the corresponding period last year. “This is not a major concern as the majority of sowing usually takes place in July,” it reads.

“Kharif sowing has been slow so far this year, but it is expected to pick up in the next few weeks as monsoon conditions normalize,” IFPRI’s Kishore seconds the findings.