2022 T20 World Cup: Pakistan will have to win every match, and still be lucky to reach the next stage now

Super 12 Group 2 Points Table

Two last-ball thrillers, two gut-wrenching heartbreaks. Had things panned out slightly – just slightly – differently, Pakistan would have been sitting pretty atop the Group 2 Super 12 standings. Instead, with the rub of the green not going their way, the 2009 T20 World Cup champions are within a whisker of crashing out of the 2022 edition at the first time of asking.

It’s a scenario few would have envisaged a week back. True, their opener against India was an even contest, the might of India’s batting against the class of the Pakistani pace attack. It would all come down to the narrowest of margins, one slice of brilliance here, one schoolboy error there. Neither side went into the game as overwhelming favourites; at the end of it, no one, not even the staunchest Pakistani supporter, begrudged an Indian win, not least because it was shaped by Virat Kohli, as celebrated across the border as he is in India.

Defeat to Zimbabwe in their second match, however, wasn’t in the script. It wasn’t even in the realms of imagination. Pakistan are the fourth-ranked T20I team in the world, Zimbabwe occupy the 11th slot and only made the main draw after coming through the first phase, having failed to secure direct qualification to the Super 12s. This was never supposed to even be a contest, not with the match scheduled for the Optus Stadium in Perth which boasts the quickest, bounciest surface in Australia.

The popular perception was that Pakistan would unleash the full fury and disappointment of defeat at the hands of India on the hapless Zimbabweans, that Messrs Afridi, Naseem and Rauf would run rings around the batsmen from the African nation. That this match would not only apply balm to old wounds reopened by their fiercest rivals but that it would also boost their net run rate, a factor teams always keep an eye on in multi-team competitions.

The hunters seemed on course for a regulation victory for half the match, keeping Zimbabwe down to a modest 130 for eight after Craig Ervine chose to bat. The large Zimbabwean contingent in the Perth crowd egged its boys on, in desperate hope rather than well-founded optimism. But in one of those remarkable twists that only sport, wonderful sport, can deliver, the hunted turned the tables and transformed into unexpected hunters themselves. Zimbabwe dug deep to scythe through the Pakistani batting, their spirit and spunk and desperation offering a stark contrast to Pakistan’s timidity, hesitancy and eventual despondency. If ever there was a night for the underdog, this was it.

Pakistan haven’t been awful this tournament, it’s just that they haven’t been good enough to seize their chances. Now, carpe diem might have passed them by, because their future is no longer in their own hands. Not even three wins on the bounce, against Netherlands, South Africa and Bangladesh, will guarantee them a place in the knockout semis; a host of results must go their way, their hopes resting as much on India coming to their rescue as Pakistan helping themselves.

To start with, Pakistan must win their remaining fixtures, and win them well because who knows, given the inclement weather and the topsy-turvy nature of this tournament, net run rate (NRR) could still come into play. In some ways, because both defeats came off the last ball, the second by just one run, Pakistan’s NRR (-0.050) isn’t unmanageably poor. The computer geeks will have their gadgets out sometime next week; for now, Pakistan’s immediate task when they run into Netherlands in Perth on Sunday must be a victory, of any sorts, so they get on the board.

Apart from embarking on a winning run from here on, Pakistan will depend on India to do them a few favours. Ideally, they’d want their neighbours to win all their remaining games because that will mean their three potential competitors for the remaining semifinal slot, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, all suffer setbacks. If South Africa lose to both India and Pakistan, then the latter will breathe easy, provided they meet the first requirement which is for them to win the matches still to come.

In a nutshell then, among the core necessities for Pakistan to advance are:

· Win their remaining matches, and win them handsomely so that they are well-placed if NRR comes into play

· Hope for India to defeat South Africa

· Hope for Zimbabwe to lose at least two of their next three matches, against India, Netherlands and Bangladesh

· Hope that Bangladesh win only against Zimbabwe and lose their other two games

None of these can’t happen, but there are numerous obstacles in Pakistan’s route. For instance, a washout and the consequent no-result could damage their chances immeasurably, hence the rider that Pakistan’s fate is out of their control alone from here onwards.

What must be a little deflating for Pakistan is that they threw their hardest, most venomous punches at Zimbabwe and still couldn’t KO their opponents. What they can take heart from is that Netherlands lie in store next, also in Perth, and lightning seldom strikes the same place twice. They will also be delighted that their faceoff against South Africa is at the SCG, which should bring spinners Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz too into the picture, though they will be wary of the presence in the Protean ranks of left-arm wrist-spinner Tabraiz Shamsi and left-arm finger spinner Keshav Maharaj.

Babar Azam faces the biggest test of his captaincy credentials. He has blown hot and cold with bat in hand but this time, it’s his tactical, strategic and man-management skills that will come under scrutiny. A few handy knocks wouldn’t hurt either.