MC EXCLUSIVE Nokia sees stronger India revenue growth by 2026 as Vodafone Idea, Airtel ramp up 4G, 5G rollouts: India head

Vodafone Idea

Nokia expects a return to stronger revenue growth in India by 2026, as all three telecom operators ramp up 4G and 5G rollouts—particularly in rural and semi-urban areas—and focus on monetising 5G use cases amid rising data demand and the push to lift ARPU, the company’s India head Tarun Chhabra told Moneycontrol.

Nokia, he said, is already engaged in optical and routing projects within the defence sector and sees potential for broader private network deployments in strategic sectors.

While 2025 is expected to remain a cautious year, Chhabra said the industry is now set for steady growth, driven by accelerating data consumption, wider adoption of fixed wireless access (FWA), and increasing 5G device penetration.

“I assume 2026 will be better than 2025,” Chhabra said. “Only around 60% of potential 5G sites have been deployed so far, so about 40% more deployment is possible as utilisation rises, 5G smartphones increase, and FWA expands,” he told Moneycontrol in an interaction.

"2026 will be a year of stronger deployment and monetisation. Wherever the growth happens, be it fixed or wireless, Nokia will be part of it," he said.

Telcos Step Up Network Investments

According to Chhabra, all major telecom operators are continuing to invest in both 4G and 5G, based on coverage and device mix in different regions.

Densification, he said, is “a continuous process” and a natural outcome of growing data demand. Nokia, one of India’s key network vendors, continues to roll out new sites for all its operator partners, including Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio.

He added that monetisation trends are improving, with average revenue per user (ARPU) rising and consumers showing a clear willingness to pay more for high-speed 5G experiences. “ARPU has gone up. People are using 5G, and they are willing to pay for better speeds,” Chhabra noted.

Rural Coverage and National Targets

Chhabra said telcos’ next wave of expansion will increasingly target rural and semi-urban markets, aligned with the National Telecom Policy’s goals of expanding broadband coverage.

“The policy aims to raise broadband penetration from 46% to 80% and achieve 100% Gram Panchayat connectivity through 4G and 5G. That growth in fiber and fixed broadband will also be significant for us,” he said.

Nokia’s Expanding Portfolio and Manufacturing Base

Nokia, Chhabra said, remains well-positioned across both wireless and fixed broadband segments, supplying everything from radios and core network gear to optical and IP equipment. “Whether growth comes from fixed or wireless, Nokia has the portfolio width to support it,” he said.

The company’s Chennai factory, operational for over 15 years, continues to play a critical role — not just for domestic rollouts but also as an export hub. “We have been manufacturing radios in India for 15–16 years. Depending on demand, our exports vary between 45% and 65% of production,” he said.

Nokia has also begun local manufacturing of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) devices in partnership with Dixon Technologies. Chhabra welcomed the government’s efforts to deepen the component ecosystem, including semiconductors, saying this would enhance local value addition.

“If India builds an electronics component ecosystem like the one that developed in the auto industry, it will be a huge positive. We are ready to source locally as that capacity emerges,” he said.

Beyond telecom operators, Chhabra pointed to growing potential in defense, railways, ports, mining and manufacturing, where private networks and automation solutions could drive future demand. “The use cases are technically ready from industrial automation to smart agriculture, but mass adoption depends on ecosystem readiness,” he said.

On the 6G front, Chhabra said a significant portion of Nokia’s 8,500 R&D engineers in Bengaluru will gradually shift their focus from 5G to 6G development — a “natural progression,” he noted, as networks evolve from mere connectivity to sensing and intelligence.

He highlighted Nokia’s growing role in 6G research, pointing to the establishment of its 6G Lab in Bengaluru in 2024. The facility works closely with IISc Bengaluru and other members of the Bharat 6G Alliance.

Chhabra highlighted early 6G innovations such as sensing networks — systems capable of detecting motion, intrusions, or even medical emergencies without external sensors. “In the future, networks will not just connect — they’ll sense, think and act,” he said.