US Fed Meeting Highlights: 'I'm not thinking about that': Jerome Powell on possible future as Fed Governor

• A backward look would lead you to a neutral stance, but we can't have to look at that and because the economy is still solid, we can take the time to actually see what's going to happen.
• From my standpoint, it's not complicated. Chair on Trumps comments
• What everyone on the FOMC wants is a good, solid American economy with strong labour marketings and price depointing. That's what we want.
  We think our policy is well positioned to right now is to deliver that
• I'm not thinking about that. - Chair on if he is not made chair again, will he be guv

• The pass through of tariffs to consumer price inflation is a whole process that's very uncertain.
• There are many parties in that chain. There's the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, and the consumer, and each one of those is going to be trying not to be the one to pay for the tariff. But together they will all pay for them. together, or maybe maybe one party will pay it all.
• So that's why we need to see some actual data to make better decisions. We'd like to get some more data.
• And again, in the meantime, we can do that because the economy remains in solid condition.

• Alongside its rate decision, the Federal Reserve signaled through its closely watched “dot plot” that two interest rate cuts remain possible by the end of 2025. However, the outlook for 2026 and 2027 was trimmed by one cut each, bringing the total projected reductions to four—amounting to a full percentage point.
• The updated dot plot reflected ongoing uncertainty among Fed officials regarding the future path of interest rates. Each dot on the chart represents an individual policymaker’s forecast, and this time, the projections showed a wide range of views. The median estimate pointed to a federal funds rate of approximately 3.4% by 2027.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent following the June 17-18 meeting; the central bank maintained the same level since December 2024 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade-related volatility.

US stocks extended modest gains through mid-Wednesday, with investors staying cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 100 points or 0.24 percent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.33 percent and 0.51 percent, respectively. (Read More)

'We have a stupid person at the Fed. He probably won't cut today... Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?,' said US President Donald Trump about Fed chief Jerome Powell. He added, 'I don’t even think he’s political, I think he hates me.'

In the run-up to the upcoming meeting, multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled hesitation about cutting interest rates, citing concerns that former President Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could reignite inflation. While inflation has eased substantially from its post-pandemic highs, it remains close to the Fed’s 2% annual target—leaving policymakers wary of acting too soon.

• West African nations want to strike deals with the U.S. over energy and rare earth minerals, but the Trump administration's looming expansion of travel bans risks derailing those efforts, Nigeria's foreign minister said on Wednesday.
• U.S. President Donald Trump this month implemented full or partial travel bans for foreign nationals from a dozen countries as part of his immigration crackdown. A possible broadening of the restrictions to an additional 36 countries would include nearly all of West Africa.
• "This would be most unfortunate if it comes to pass, because we are a region of opportunities ready to do deals," said Nigeria's Yussuf Tuggar, who currently chairs regional bloc ECOWAS's council of foreign ministers. - Reuters

• Federal Reserve YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/federalreserve
• Federal Reserve’s X (formerly Twitter) handle: https://x.com/federalreserve
• Federal Reserve official website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htm

The Federal Reserve will announce the outcome of its June FOMC meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (11:30 p.m. IST) on June 18. Shortly after, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a live-streamed press conference to address the decision.

• The prospect of a dovish Federal Reserve meeting is competing with higher oil prices to push and pull dollar traders in diverging directions.
• That’s leading the spot and options market to take opposing views on the greenback, a notable development after the currency’s worst start to a year on record. (Read More)

• US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
• The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% at 9:39 a.m. in New York, with the benchmark heading toward the closing record set on Feb. 19. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index was up 0.1%.
• “We’re close to the all-time highs with a tremendous amount of event risk over the summer,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “For most investors, now would be a good time to rebalance and get ready for additional event-related volatility over the summer.” - Bloomberg

Markets are anticipating quarter-point rate cuts in both September and December this year—but whether those cuts materialize remains to be seen.

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its updated policy statement on Wednesday, June 18 at 2:00 PM ET.
• Markets will have time to digest the announcement as there will be no trading on Thursday, June 19.
• U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on June 19 in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.
• Juneteenth commemorates the end of slavery in the United States.
• It was designated a federal holiday in 2021, becoming the eleventh official holiday and the first new one since Martin Luther King Jr. Day was established in 1983.

In April, Donald Trump remarked that the end of Jerome Powell’s term “cannot come fast enough.” Although he reiterated as recently as last week that he does not intend to fire the Fed Chair, Trump has maintained pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. He has also indicated that he plans to name Powell’s successor soon.

Beyond the rate decision, attention will also be on the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the highly anticipated ‘dot plot.’ This chart will reveal policymakers’ forecasts for where interest rates could head later this year. According to a report by Julius Baer, unless incoming data reveals clear negative effects from policy uncertainty, the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance before potentially introducing two 50 basis point cuts in September and October. However, stronger-than-expected data could prompt delays or a slower pace of easing.

Although core inflation has stabilized at 2.8%, price pressures have not eased significantly, and the threat from tariff-driven inflation remains. These factors suggest that the conditions are not yet right for the Fed to pursue a second round of rate cuts, as inflation has not cooled enough to justify easing monetary policy.

By Tuesday afternoon, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 99.9% probability that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate range. Despite strong job creation, recent labor market data—such as a decline in participation—supports the Fed's cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy in the near term.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, taking place on June 17 and 18, is widely expected to conclude with the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged. Powell is scheduled to announce the decision at 2 p.m. ET on June 17. According to market indicators, the federal funds rate will likely remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting, the spotlight will not only be on the interest rate decision but also on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Interestingly, observers are paying extra attention to Powell’s choice of attire—specifically a purple tie—which has become an unexpected point of interest during this pivotal economic moment.