Last Updated : Feb 04, 2019 10:59 AM IST | Source:

'F&O data shows lowest participation in six months with Nifty futures rollover at just 61%'

Bollinger band used to analyze volatility breakout is almost flat suggesting sideways movement. At the same time volatility index, VIX has closed below 16 marks further adding to the range bound movement thesis.

Moneycontrol Contributor @moneycontrolcom
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Todays L/H

Shabbir Kayyumi

Market after hitting bottom on last Tuesday morning took support from lower Bollinger Band and bounced back almost 400 points. Nifty hit high of 10,983 in a volatile session on the Interim Budget day.

Market has managed to sustain above its three major simple moving averages 20-DMA, 100-DMA and 200-DMA, which are placed between 10,840-10,800 levels, suggesting support zone on the lower side. A normal retracement towards this strong support zone of the line of polarity can be used as a buying opportunity.


Benchmark index is consolidating in a tight range of 10,980-10,600 since last 2 months, and entire movement is under a rectangle pattern formation, whereby breakout will be a close above 10,980 mark for higher target of 11,187 levels.

Bollinger band, used to analyse volatility breakout, is almost flat suggesting sideways movement. At the same time, volatility index (VIX) has closed below 16 marks further adding to the rangebound movement thesis.

Sustained trade above the mentioned range will accelerate up move to take the index higher towards immediate resistance of 11,187, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which is calculated by taking swing high of 11,760 and swing low of 10,004. At the same time, a close below 10,800 will push prices lower towards 10,740-10,660 levels.

Rollover percentage in Nifty futures was only 61%; surprisingly it is the lowest rollover in the last six months, signifying lower participation in F&O segment.

Bank Nifty

Banking index is trading in a tight range of 26,400-27,600, whereas descending trend line breakout on lower time frame is expected only above 27,585, which will push prices higher towards 27,900 levels.

Trade Recommendation

Firstsource Solutions | Buy around Rs 50 | Target: Rs 58 | Stop Loss: Rs 45 | Upside 16 percent

The scrip seems bottoming out at its lower levels of Rs 43 mark from where it formed Hammer on daily chart suggesting upswing on upside. Stock took support from its lower levels as principal of polarity occurs on daily chart along with positive divergence in RSI on daily chart are giving cues that scrip can take a turn on positive side. Aforementioned rationale suggests buying in the scrip above Rs 50 for the target of Rs 58 with the stop loss of Rs 45 marks.

PFC | Buy around Rs 101 | Target: Rs 112 | Stop Loss: Rs 94 | Upside 11 percent

After hitting the peak of Rs 110, PFC slipped at lower levels from where chances of developing of demand are higher and prices took support from the falling line. As of now, formation of hammer on 60 min chart which is giving cues to accumulate this stock at lower levels. Moreover, 50 DMA is seen near Rs 99 marks from where possibility of bounce back is higher.

The RSI also has bounced from the oversold zone and currently it has indicated a steep rise. As long as it sustains above Rs 94 marks, possibility of moving on upside is higher and it can hit our target of Rs 112 with an ease. Buy around Rs 101 with stop loss of Rs 94 with a target of Rs 112.

Petronet LNG | Buy around Rs 219 | Target: Rs 240 | Stop Loss: Rs 209 | Upside 10 percent

Petronet LNG has witnessed a decent correction recently from the peak of Rs 250 and after that it took support from its rising support line. RSI has been hovering above 50 and MACD has indicated a reversal to maintain a positive bias which is showing potential to rise further in the coming days. Moreover, it took support from 200 DMA which also suggest bullish move on upside. With the chart looking attractive and decent volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy around Rs 219 in this stock for an upside target of Rs 240, keep a stop loss of Rs 209.

Biocon | Buy around Rs 660 | Target: Rs 720 | Stop Loss: Rs 630 | Upside 9 percent

On a daily chart, Biocon has taken a support from its horizontal trough due to the concept of point of parity which indicates halt in the down swing of the scrip. Moreover, Bullish crossover in MACD indicates positivity in the counter. A daily momentum indicator RSI suggests that it may take support from its central line of Rs 50 marks. Based on the above technical set up, we are expecting an upside momentum in the counter in the coming days for the target of Rs 720 levels with stop loss of Rs 630 marks.

HDFC Bank | Buy around Rs 2070 | Target: Rs 2200 | Stop Loss: Rs 2020 | Upside 6 percent

Occurrence of Bullish engulfing at bottom levels showing an upsurge move on higher side. RSI took a flip on positive side from its oversold levels creates positive sentiment. Moreover, declining histogram of MACD on daily chart is also looking conducive for the scrip.

Furthermore, strong support is seen near Rs 2039 and 2052 levels where 100 and 200 DMA is seen. By looking all these mentioned factors, we recommend to buy HDFC Bank around Rs 2070 for the target of Rs 2200 with stop loss of Rs 2020 mark on closing basis.

The author is Head - Technical & Derivative Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on Moneycontrol are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
First Published on Feb 4, 2019 10:59 am