Emkay Global Financial's research report on TVS Motor
TVSL reported a strong Q4 with ~4.6% QoQ ASP growth and reported EBITDA margin of 14%, aided by recognition of PLI benefit for the full year; margins excl 9M PLI stood at 12.5% vs 11.9% in Q3 (2.3% ASP growth at ~Rs76,800 without considering 9M PLI). TVSL expects domestic 2W industry to grow similarly to FY25 (ICE industry grew ~7% in FY25), with exports to benefit from demand in key African markets near bottoming out. We continue to like TVSL amid its ongoing market share gains across growth categories (premium motorcycles, scooters, exports, and EVs), with portfolio actions (eg recent Jupiter 110cc scooter, E-3W and other E2W launches, per industry checks) seen aiding further outperformance and driving 6.6%/5.9% EPS upgrade in FY26E/27E (27% CAGR over FY25-27E).
Outlook
We maintain BUY with revised SoTPbased TP of Rs 3,100 (30x FY27E core PER + Rs186 for captive finance arm).
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