Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on PVR Inox
We cut our FY24E/FY25E pre-Ind AS EBITDA estimates by 11.5%/10% amid 1) dull screen opening guidance of 150-175 in FY24E v/s earlier band of 180-200 2) slow recovery in ad-revenues and 3) persistent high volatility in Bollywood genre. While PVR’s operational performance was broadly in-line with our estimate, bottom-line was marred by tax write down of Rs1,343mn and exceptional cost of Rs269mn pertaining to merger expenses, impairment of CWIP and accelerated depreciation charge on ~50 cinemas proposed to be shut down over next 6 months. Though dull screen opening guidance and Bollywood underperformance does not inspire much confidence, content slate for near term is healthy with movies like F-10, Adipurush, Maidaan, Oppenheimer, Animal and MI-Dead Reckoning in pipeline which should aid in driving footfalls back to cinemas.
Outlook
We expect PVR Inox to report 166mn/180mn footfalls with a pre-IND AS EBITDA margin of 17.5%/19.2% in FY24E/FY25E. Retain ‘BUY’ with TP of Rs1,879 (earlier Rs2,096), after assigning EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.5x (earlier 15.5x as we roll-forward to Sep-24E).
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