Agri Picks Report August 20, 2024: Geojit Financial Services

commodities

Geojit Financial Services's report on Daily Agri Picks

The International Grains Council has lowered its estimate for global grain output for 2024-25 by 6 mln tn on month to 2,315 mln tn. IGC in July estimated the global wheat and coarse grains output at 2,321 mln tn. For 2023-24, the council estimated global grain output at 2,299 mln tn. Factoring in smaller opening inventories, the estimate for carryover stocks is down by 5 mln tn to 581 mln tn, including a tighter outlook in the major exporters, according to the report. Consumption of grains in 2024-25 has now been estimated at 2,321 mln tn, down from 2,324 mln tn. Global output of wheat is seen at 799 mln tn, down from 801 mln tn estimated earlier and 794 mln tn a year earlier. The consumption estimate for wheat has been raised to 803 mln tn from 802 mln tn in the previous month. The estimates for carry-over stocks have been revised down to 266 mln tn from 269 mln tn, the report said. India's wheat production in 2023-24 is estimated at 110.6 mln tn, unchanged from the previous estimate. For 2024-25, the council projects wheat production in India at 112.9 mln tn, unchanged from its July estimate. The agency has estimated India's wheat exports in 2023-24 and 2024-25 at 300,000 tn each. Though the government banned wheat exports in May 2022 to control rising domestic prices, it sells wheat to a few countries to address food security concerns. The global rice production estimate has been maintained at 528 mln tn whereas consumption has declined to 526 mln tn from 527 mln tn earlier. For 2023-24, the figures were 522 mln tn. The multilateral agency has kept India's rice production estimate for 2024-25 unchanged at 137.5 mln tn. India's rice production in 2023-24 is seen at 136.7 mln tn, unchanged from last month. The forecast for India's rice exports for 2023-24 has been revised up to 15.4 mln tn from 15.1 mln while estimates for 2024-25 remained unchanged at 17.3 mln tn. For maize, the output estimate for 2024-25 is at 1,226 mln tn, up from 1,225 mln tn last month and 1,223 mln tn in the previous year. The consumption estimate is to 1,229 mln tn from 1,230 mln tn a month ago and 1,221 mln tn last year. The August report has estimated global soybean output in 2024-25 at 419 mln tn, up from the July figure of 415 mln tn and 392 mln tn a year earlier. Consumption estimate stands at 406 mln tn, up from 404 mln tn a month ago, and from 384 mln tn estimated for 2023-24.

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