Indian quick commerce market to hit $30 billion by FY30 amid mobile-first consumption boom: Bessemer report

Indian quick commerce market to hit $30 billion by FY30 amid mobile-first consumption boom, says Bessemer report

India’s quick commerce market is projected to grow from $5 billion in FY25 to $30 billion by FY30, up from just $300 million in FY22, according to a new report by venture capital firm Bessemer Venture Partners.

Quick commerce is emerging as a major disruptor not just to traditional e-commerce but also to offline kirana and modern trade formats. Consumers are increasingly turning to 10–30 minute delivery platforms, such as Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and Zepto, for a wide range of high-frequency, low-ticket purchases, moving beyond groceries into categories like snacks, personal care, and daily essentials.

Bessemer notes that the next phase of growth will be driven by vertical expansion within quick commerce. Startups are already tapping into categories such as fashion (Slikk, Blip), home services (Pronto, Urban Company, Snabbit), and medicine delivery (DocPharma, Farmako, Plazza), as platforms diversify to capture broader consumer demand.

Several structural tailwinds are fueling this boom. The number of digital shoppers in India has grown from 400,000 in 2010 to 238 million in 2024, and is expected to double to 500 million by 2030. Annual per capita digital spend has jumped from $250 to $800 over the same period, and is projected to reach $2,000 by 2030.

India’s digital infrastructure has also seen a massive transformation. It is now the world’s largest and most affordable mobile data market, helping smartphone penetration rise from 10 percent in 2014 to 77 percent in 2024. Time spent online has more than tripled—from 16 hours per week in 2014 to 47 hours in 2024, with mobile apps becoming central to everyday consumption.

The report attributes this shift to a digitally savvy, middle-class population with rising discretionary income, which is fundamentally reshaping how India shops.
At the same time, India’s overall e-commerce market has grown from $14 billion in 2014 (3 percent of total retail) to $145 billion in 2024 (11 percent). It is expected to reach $300 billion by 2030, accounting for 17 percent of the total retail market.

This surge in quick commerce comes amid bullish projections from multiple research and investment firms, underscoring the sector’s rapid expansion and investor optimism.

Morgan Stanley recently revised its estimate for India’s quick commerce total addressable market (TAM) to $57 billion by 2030, up from an earlier forecast of $42 billion, citing faster user adoption and geographic expansion beyond top metros.

A joint report by Flipkart and Bain & Company pegged the sector’s gross merchandise value (GMV) at $7 billion in 2024, up from $1.6 billion in 2022, and projected over 40 percent annual growth through 2030. According to the report, two-thirds of online grocery orders and 10 percent of India’s total e-retail spending last year occurred via quick commerce platforms.

At the same time, some analysts have flagged potential headwinds.

The Indus Valley 2025 report by Blume Ventures cautions that the market could face challenges such as a limited TAM, slowing growth in monthly transacting users (MTUs), and intensifying competition from e-commerce incumbents as platforms expand beyond the top consumer markets.

Nevertheless, quick commerce operators including Blinkit, Instamart, Zepto, and Flipkart Minutes continue to expand aggressively, setting up new dark stores to claw away market share. According to a recent report by Motilal Oswal, Blinkit leads the segment with 46 percent share, followed by Zepto at 29 percent and Instamart at 25 percent.