Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The Dollar index is tumbling—Is the Greenback losing its safe haven status?

For emerging markets, the dollar’s slide is both an opportunity and a warning.

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Is the once-mighty US dollar losing steam? The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, has tumbled to 103.50—its lowest in over four months. After peaking near 110 in early January, the dollar has surrendered nearly all its gains, raising serious questions about the forces driving this decline and what it signals for global markets.

The reasons behind the dollar’s retreat are clear: mounting recession fears, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and a strong rebound in rival currencies. The latest blow came from the disappointing US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which pointed to a cooling labour market. Investors are now pricing in the likelihood of multiple rate cuts from the Fed this year, pushing US Treasury yields lower and undermining dollar strength.

The currency dynamics

But the pressure is not just domestic. Global currency markets are shifting, with both the euro and the Japanese yen staging a strong comeback. The euro is benefiting from Germany’s landmark decision to loosen borrowing limits, allowing for greater fiscal spending, while the yen is surging on expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may hike interest rates further. With the two biggest components of the DXY rallying, the dollar’s dominance is fading.

At the same time, Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats have added to investor anxiety, further weighing on the greenback. Markets are now factoring in the risk of a trade war that could slow US growth, making dollar-denominated assets less attractive. The Fed’s cautious stance, combined with economic uncertainties, has sent traders unwinding their long-dollar positions, accelerating the selloff.

What does it mean for rest of the world?

Fund flows to emerging markets (EMs) are closely tied to the strength of the US dollar—a stronger dollar typically leads to capital outflows from EMs, tightening financial conditions. However, concerns about China being forced to devalue the yuan appear overblown as the currency has remained largely stable despite economic headwinds. For the Indian rupee, stability in the yuan is a positive factor, reducing the risk of competitive devaluation in Asia. While the rupee has been resilient, external pressures from the US monetary policy and oil prices remain key factors influencing its trajectory.

For emerging markets, the dollar’s slide is both an opportunity and a warning. A weaker dollar typically eases pressure on EM currencies, as seen with the Indian rupee’s sharp rebound.

However, the window for gains may be narrow. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively intervening, conducting $15 billion in dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps over the past month to stabilise the currency. Another $10 billion swap is scheduled for March 24, signalling that the central bank is not keen on excessive rupee volatility.

Beyond India, other emerging markets may see capital inflows as investors move money into higher-yielding assets. But Trump’s trade war threats loom large. If tariffs escalate and global trade slows, emerging economies could suffer, offsetting any gains from a weaker dollar. Much will depend on the impact of tariff negotiations on corporate earnings. In this context, consider Vatsala Kamat’s story on the headwinds for Indian auto component manufacturers. Investors remain cautious, knowing that market sentiment can shift quickly with geopolitical uncertainties.

What’s next?

The dollar’s trajectory will be shaped by upcoming US inflation data. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be critical to determining whether the Fed sticks to its dovish outlook. If inflation remains sticky, the Fed may delay rate cuts, potentially halting the dollar’s decline. Conversely, weaker inflation could fuel expectations of earlier rate cuts, pushing the dollar lower still.

For now, the greenback remains vulnerable, caught between economic uncertainty, shifting global capital flows, and political risk. For emerging markets, this moment offers short-term relief, but the real test will come when trade tensions and Fed policy decisions take centre stage.

If US inflation rises while inflation differentials with other economies narrow, the dollar could weaken as the Fed’s rate advantage diminishes. However, the bigger question is whether the dollar could lose its safe-haven status amid global uncertainty. The dollar may be down, but its influence is far from over.

While the Greenback remains dominant, investors have increasingly sought refuge in alternatives like the Swiss franc and gold. The Swiss franc has strengthened against the dollar in recent months, reflecting its appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, gold prices have surged, signalling a shift in risk-averse capital flows.

What does all this mean? While the dollar’s role isn’t under immediate threat, its absolute dominance is being tested.

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