Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 extend losing streak to sixth day, Bank Nifty break 100-DEMA decisively?

Nifty Trading Plan For September 26

With weakening technical and momentum indicators, the Nifty 50 is expected to stay negative with consolidation in the upcoming session. If the index sustains below 24,900, a sell-on-rally strategy can be preferred. Below this level, the 24,800–24,700 zone is an immediate support area; however, on the higher side, the 25,000–25,100 range can act as a hurdle zone. Meanwhile, sentiment also turned further weak with the Bank Nifty falling below 55,000. If the index decisively breaks 54,900 (100 DEMA), 54,500 is the level to watch. However, 55,200–55,500 may act as a resistance zone, experts said.

On September 25, the Nifty 50 plummeted 166 points (0.66 percent) to 24,891, while the Bank Nifty declined 145 points to 54,976, with market breadth dominated by bears. A total of 1,987 shares saw selling pressure compared to 785 shares that witnessed buying interest on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty broke below the psychological 25,000 mark, extending losses for a fifth straight session and forming a weak structure. Consecutive lower highs and lower closes, along with trading under the 20- and 50-day EMAs, confirm bearish dominance.

Derivatives data show aggressive Call writing at 25,000, turning it into strong resistance, while Put writers shifted lower, capping the upside. The RSI below 50 further signals weakening momentum. Unless the index decisively reclaims 25,050, selling pressure will prevail. A breakdown below 24,800 could drag it toward 24,620, making “sell on rise” the ideal approach.

Key Resistance: 25,000, 25,150, 25,250

Key Support: 24,800, 24,700, 24,600

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy for the September 30 expiry by selling one lot of 24,700 CE at Rs 282 and buying one lot of 25,000 CE at Rs 76. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold the strategy until expiry, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 7,042

Target: Hold the strategy until expiry to achieve a maximum profit of Rs 15,458 or consider booking profits once the MTM gains exceed Rs 7,200

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty posted a solid 4.28 percent rise from its low of 24,396 on August 29 to a peak of 25,448 on September 18 this year. On September 18, a hanging man candlestick pattern surfaced, sparking profit-taking that drove the index below the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally, with the price now trading under the 20- and 50-day EMAs.

The overall trend remains mildly bullish as long as 24,800 (tied to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level) holds firm. On the weekly chart, Nifty is in a neutral-to-mildly bullish phase, with RSI retesting its double bottom breakout zone and MACD in bullish territory but showing a negative crossover, indicating reduced bullish momentum. Volatility indicators suggest potential volatility ahead, with a sideways-to-mildly positive bias while 24,800 holds; a break below could shift the outlook to bearish.

Key Resistance: 25,200, 25,300, 25,450

Key Support: 24,800, 24,600, 24,400

Strategy: Take positions at current levels and buy on dips, with a stop-loss at 24,780. Cautious traders may add longs if the September 18 high is exceeded. Initiate new shorts if 24,800 is breached downward and holds below for a few minutes, targeting 24,600 and 24,400.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has formed a strong bearish candlestick pattern, highlighting sustained weakness. On the downside, immediate and crucial support is placed at 24,800; a breach below this level could intensify the pressure, opening the way towards the 24,600–24,500 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 25,000, followed by a stronger hurdle near 25,200. A decisive move above 25,200 would be required to trigger fresh buying interest.

Until the index remains below the 25,200 level, a ‘sell-on-rise’ strategy is advisable. Traders should maintain strict stop-loss levels and remain cautious in the current market environment.

Key Resistance: 25,000, 25,200

Key Support: 24,800, 24,600

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rise near 25,000 levels for a target of 24,600–24,500 levels, with a stop-loss at 25,200 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank’s fall below the 55,000 mark has turned the tide in favour of bears, confirming a decisive breakdown of its trendline support. Five straight sessions of failing to cross the prior day’s high highlight the fading strength of buyers. With RSI slipping under 50 and both 20- and 50-day EMAs acting as supply zones, momentum tilts firmly bearish.

Derivatives action shows Call writers tightening the lid near 55,200, making any upside short-lived. Unless this barrier is reclaimed, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling, keeping “sell-on-rise” the preferred play while risks loom toward 54,500.

Key Resistance: 55,200, 55,380, 55,500

Key Support: 54,800, 54,500, 54,300

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy for the September 30 expiry by selling one lot of 54,700 CE at Rs 505 and buying one lot of 55,100 CE at Rs 246. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold the strategy until expiry, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 4,942

Target: Hold the strategy until expiry to achieve a maximum profit of Rs 9,058 or consider booking profits once the MTM gains exceed Rs 5,000

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty supported Nifty’s recent rally, gaining 4.24 percent from September 3 to September 18, 2025. Like Nifty, the banking index formed a hanging man pattern, leading to profit-taking, and closed near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement, fluctuating between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The outlook is mildly positive to sideways while it stays above 54,700 and 54,430.

A recent breakout above a downward-sloping trendline with a strong long-bodied candlestick signals a short-term bullish turn. Momentum indicators point to a sideways-to-mildly positive trend ahead. Volatility indicators forecast possible swings, with a mildly positive bias as long as 54,700 holds.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 55,835

Key Support: 55,000, 54,700

Strategy: Accumulate Bank Nifty on dips around 55,000 and 54,700, with a stop-loss at 54,560. Conservative traders may add longs if the September 18 high is broken. Enter new shorts if 54,700 is breached downward and sustains below for a few minutes, targeting 54,430 and 54,000.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, a bearish-bodied candlestick with a long upper wick and a minor lower wick was formed on the Bank Nifty, indicating selling pressure at higher levels despite some buying support from the lows. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 54,800; a breach below this could invite further pressure towards the 54,500–54,300 zone.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 55,300, while a strong hurdle lies in the 55,500–55,700 range. A decisive move above this zone would be required to trigger fresh buying momentum. Until the index sustains below these resistance levels, a ‘sell-on-rise’ strategy is advisable. Traders are advised to maintain strict stop-losses and stay cautious amid ongoing volatility.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,200

Key Support: 54,800, 54,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty on rise near 55,300 levels for a target of 54,500–54,300 levels, with a stop-loss of 55,700 on a closing basis.

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