Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 continue to underperform Bank Nifty amid rangebound trading?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 staged a strong recovery from the intraday low and closed marginally lower on June 2, while the rising India VIX, after a three-day decline, is indicating caution for bulls. The formation of a Bullish Hammer-type pattern on the daily charts suggests the possibility of a trend reversal, though confirmation is needed from the following session. Overall, the index is expected to trade within the 24,500–25,100 range in the upcoming sessions. According to experts, a fall below 24,500 can open the door for a move toward 24,400, while sustaining above 25,000 can drive the index toward the 25,100–25,200 zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to reclaim its record high soon, especially ahead of the RBI monetary policy. Above this, 56,500 is the key level to watch, while support is placed at 55,500.

On June 2, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,717, down 34 points after recouping 190 points from the day's low. The Bank Nifty climbed 154 points to 55,903. Market breadth was slightly in favour of bulls, with about 1,386 shares advancing, compared to 1,254 shares that declined on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Nifty has been trading sideways within a range of 24,400 to 25,100, and unless this range is broken on a closing basis, the overall trend will remain sideways. The India VIX has been alternating up and down; however, implied volatility (IVs) is rising and is expected to remain elevated until the RBI Monetary Policy, meaning volatility is likely to persist.

Options activity has been relatively low due to the rising IVs. Based on current data, the 24,000 strike has the highest Put open interest (OI) and the 26,000 strike has the highest Call OI for the weekly series. Within this, 24,500 and 25,500 strikes have the second-highest OI, so the short-term range is expected to be 24,500–25,500. The weekly series is likely to close within this range.

The index is hovering around its 20-day VWAP, making 24,500 immediate support and 25,100 immediate resistance. It is trading between its maximum pain (24,700) and modified maximum pain (25,044) levels. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.68, which is neutral but leans slightly bearish. Thus, the short-term trend for Nifty is sideways to negative until a decisive breakout above 25,100.

Key Resistance: 25,000, 25,100

Key Support: 24,500, 24,400

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near 25,000, with a stop-loss at 25,150, targeting 24,700 and 24,500. Or Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,500, with a stop-loss at 24,350, targeting 24,800, 25,000, and 25,100.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

On June 2, Nifty traded within a narrow range of 24,750–24,525, finding support near the S1 floor weekly pivot (24,500–24,600). This zone also aligns with a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern on the hourly timeframe, indicating potential for upside in the upcoming sessions.

Additionally, the hourly RSI has formed an impulsive structure, suggesting building bullish momentum. On the sentiment side, the FII Long-Short Ratio (as of May 30, 2025) stands at just 19%, an extremely low reading that typically precedes short-covering-driven rebounds. Together, these technical and sentiment signals point toward a likely bounce in Nifty in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,200

Key Support: 24,700, 24,600

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,750–24,700 zone, with a stop-loss at 24,500, targeting 25,200.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

After breaking above the 25,000 mark, the Nifty has been consolidating in a narrow range between 24,300 and 25,120 over the past three weeks, lacking follow-through. On the daily chart, the index is hovering around its 5-day EMA and displaying sideways movement, indicating a neutral short-term outlook.

Positively, the index continues to trade near the upper Bollinger Band, consistently finding support at the middle band, which suggests an underlying bullish bias. However, the RSI remains rangebound between 40 and 60 on both daily and weekly timeframes, highlighting the absence of strong momentum.

Key Resistance: 25,120, 25,500

Key Support: 24,300, 24,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,500, for targets of 25,120 and 25,500, with a stop-loss at 24,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has been outperforming the Nifty and is currently trading well above its 20-day VWAP (~55,200) and above its maximum pain level (55,700), but below the modified maximum pain level (56,521). This places the short-term range, ahead of the RBI policy, between 55,000 and 56,500. A breakout on either side could trigger a 1,500-point move in the June series. Hence, the short-term trend is sideways to positive.

Key Resistance: 56,100, 56,500

Key Support: 55,500, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 56,100, with a stop-loss at 55,750, targeting 56,500 and 57,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

On the daily chart, Bank Nifty shows strong price buildup around the 21-day EMA over the past two weeks. An inside value relationship is forming between the May and June Camarilla pivot levels (R3 & S3), with June’s pivots falling within May’s range—often a precursor to a sharp directional move.

Additionally, the daily RSI is holding above 60, indicating sustained bullish momentum and supporting the potential for further upside.

Key Resistance: 56,500, 56,800

Key Support: 55,500, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,000–56,200 zone, with a stop-loss at 55,700, targeting 57,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Bank Nifty continues to outperform the benchmark Nifty and closed at a new all-time high on Monday. On the weekly chart, it maintains a higher high–higher low structure, confirming a sustained uptrend. On the daily timeframe, the index has respected the Change in Polarity (CIP) zone near 54,500, which now acts as a key support, reinforcing the bullish trend.

The RSI remains firmly above 60 across all timeframes, affirming strong positive momentum.

Key Resistance: 56,100, 57,500

Key Support: 55,000, 54,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at current market price, with targets of 57,500 and 57,300, and a stop-loss at 55,000.

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