Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 be able to defend 23,400, Bank Nifty take support at 51,000?

NIfty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 reversed some of the previous day's gains and closed a third of a percent lower, forming a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts, marking a negative start to the April series on March 28. Considering the Tweezer Top-like pattern (the bearish reversal pattern) on the daily charts and caution ahead of new tariff announcements by Trump, the Nifty is likely to consolidate further with support at 23,400-23,300. However, the resistance on the higher side is placed at 23,650 and 23,800, experts said. The Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound, with immediate support at 51,000, followed by 50,800, and resistance at 51,800-52,000 zones.

On Friday, March 28, the Nifty 50 fell by 73 points, closing at 23,519, while the Bank Nifty was down by 11 points at 51,565. The market breadth was negative, as about 1,627 shares saw a correction compared to 985 shares that rose on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The Nifty 50 index has demonstrated a notable V-shaped recovery over the past weeks, successfully retesting a crucial resistance level at 23,800, which corresponds to the February swing high. This area of resistance temporarily halted the momentum of the index, preventing it from moving higher. However, despite this challenge, the Nifty managed to close the week above the confluence of the 89-DEMA and a bullish gap observed on the daily chart, suggesting a strong level of support nearby.

In addition, the index is supported by the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent upward rally, positioned at 23,150. On the flip side, the range between 23,700 and 23,800 remains a formidable barrier for the index, and a decisive breakthrough above this resistance level could trigger a bullish sentiment, enabling the price to reclaim the pivotal 24,000 level. Should this occur, there is potential for further gains, elevating the index toward the 200-DSMA, which is currently situated around the 24,080 zone. On the options front, scattered positioning of open interest was seen from 23,600-23,800 strike Calls, indicating intermediate resistance.

Key Resistance: 23,700, 23,800, 24,000, 24,100

Key Support: 23,400, 23,200, 23,150

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 23,400-23,350 and book profits near 23,800, with a stop-loss at 23,200.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On Friday, March 28, the Nifty 50 closed with a weekly gain of 169 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow, highlighting profit booking near the recent swing high of 23,800 (February 5). A decisive close above 23,800 could trigger an upside move towards 24,000-24,500, with the 200-SMA at 24,082. On the downside, 23,500-23,350 remains a strong support zone, backed by the 20-week SMA at 23,445 and the previous week's close at 23,350.

From a chart perspective, a sustained breakout above 23,850 could trigger fresh buying, propelling it towards 24,000-24,250. On the downside, a break below 23,500 may intensify selling pressure, dragging the index toward 23,350-23,000. For the week, we expect the Nifty to trade within a broader range of 24,250-23,000, maintaining a positive bias. The weekly RSI is trending upwards and remains above its reference line, reinforcing the positive sentiment.

Key Resistance: 23,650, 23,800

Key Support: 23,400, 23,250

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 23,400 with a stop-loss of 23,250, targeting 23,650-23,800.

Ameya Ranadive, Chartered Market Technician and Senior Technical Analyst at StoxBox

The Nifty has remained range-bound for the fourth consecutive session, with muted intraday volatility and strong support near the 200-day EMA (23,400–23,350). Despite a lack of momentum, sustained buying at lower levels signals accumulation, while resistance persists at 23,700–23,800. The RSI remains firm above 60, and the Nifty trades above key moving averages, reinforcing bullish undertones. Options data indicates a cautious stance, with heavy Call writing at 24,000 and strong Put support at 23,500, pushing the PCR (Put-Call ratio) down to 0.78. Maximum pain at 23,500 suggests that bulls are absorbing supply pressure.

Key Resistance: 23,750, 24,000

Key Support: 23,200, 23,000

Strategy: As long as the Nifty holds above 23,350, a buy-on-dips approach remains optimal. A breakout beyond 23,800 could trigger short-covering, paving the way for 24,000.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The technical structure of the banking index remains robust, and as long as buyers defend the bullish gap zone in the 50,800-50,650 band, they are likely to drive price action moving forward. That said, the resistance in the 51,900-52,000 band remains formidable, and unless buyers successfully overcome this zone, a significant uptick in bullish momentum is unlikely.

To summarize, the index is currently trading within a sideways range, with resistance at 51,800-51,900 and strong support in the 50,800-50,650 band. A breakout on either side of this range is expected to trigger an acceleration in momentum, with the direction depending on the breakout level. Given this setup, adopting a "buy near support and sell near resistance" strategy is ideal, while closely monitoring the mentioned levels for any potential breakout. On the options front, decent piling of open interest was seen at the 52,000 strike Call and 51,000 strike Put, indicating an intermediate range.

Key Resistance: 51,900, 52,000

Key Support: 50,800, 50,650

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 51,000 for a potential target of 52,000, with a stop-loss at 50,650.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Bank Nifty closed with a weekly gain of 971 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle with a higher high-low structure and closed above the previous week's high, indicating a positive bias. It is currently holding the upper band of the bearish gap zone at 52,011-51,790 (December 19, 2024). A decisive close above this zone could extend the upward momentum, while the 200-SMA at 51,012 is expected to act as key support. A break below this level may trigger profit booking.

Technically, a sustained move above 52,000 could drive the index towards 52,500-53,000, whereas a break below 51,500 may lead to selling pressure, pulling it down to 51,000-50,700. For the week, we expect the Bank Nifty to trade within the 53,000-50,700 range, with a positive bias. The daily and weekly RSI are trending upward and remain above their respective reference lines, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Key Resistance: 51,800, 52,300

Key Support: 51,300, 51,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near 51,250, with a stop-loss of 51,000, targeting 51,850-52,200.

Ameya Ranadive, Chartered Market Technician and Senior Technical Analyst at StoxBox

The Bank Nifty remained range-bound for the fourth straight session, lacking clear direction as intraday movements stayed muted. Despite holding above key support at 51,000–50,700, bulls struggled to gain traction, reflecting ongoing consolidation. The index remains above its key moving averages, with RSI steady above 65, indicating accumulation at lower levels. Options data shows balanced positioning, with strong Call writing at 52,000 and firm Put support at 51,000, keeping the PCR at 0.99. Maximum pain at 51,500 suggests a neutral stance, with bulls countering selling pressure.

Key Resistance: 51,850, 52,000

Key Support: 51,150, 51,000

Strategy: As long as Bank Nifty stays above 50,700, a buy-on-dips approach remains favourable. A breakout above 51,800 could trigger short-covering, pushing the index toward 52,100.

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